HomePosts Tagged "Preppers" (Page 14)

 

People have been saying the US is on course for an economic collapse for years; however, many of them have no formal education in economics, and almost all gain financially from promoting stuff that would help others weather such a calamity.  I decided to research the opinions and publications of economists who were ideologically centered, were not benefiting financially, and understood the country’s true fiscal condition, and tried to provide an estimate of the most likely future economic situation of the US.  The future does not look bright.  Several economists anticipate the US will default on its debt if the country does not change its fiscal policies.

Two major factors are driving this conclusion.  The first is the size of the US debt.  According to economists, the government has been misleading the public on the size of the debt through poor accounting practices and using misleading terminology in certain fiscal activities.  In 2013 the debt was at least 91 trillion.

The second factor is that the US will never be able to repay the staggering debt because of changing demographics.  The American population is aging, and most economists agree this will have a deleterious effect on the economy.  Decades of abortion and birth control is resulting in increasingly smaller numbers of working age people.  Consequently, the government will collect much less revenue from income taxes.  Meanwhile, the dependence on the government for medical care and Social Security will continue to grow.  Most other developed countries are in the same situation – staggering debt and decreasing numbers of working age people.  If the US significantly defaults on its sovereign debt, a worldwide depression is very possible since national economies of the modern world are complexly interconnected.  Regardless if the US defaults or not though, we can expect higher taxation, loss of government services, higher inflation, and slower future economic growth.  In my estimation, the best way to prepare for all this will be for people manage their finances so they can pay their bills and survive with income from minimum wage jobs.  The future economy of the US is almost guaranteed to be poor.

mexico_city_empty_shelves

Empty shelves in Mexico

How bad is the risk of economic collapse?

Highly respected financial experts agree that the US is far deeper in debt than what the government officially reports.  In Feb 2015, Dr Laurence Kotlikoff, an economics professor from Brown University and former senior economist on President Reagan’s council of economic advisors, testified to the Senate Budget Committee that US debt is far greater than the government’s official tally, and the government has deliberately misled the public about the real size of it for years.  He testified that the government had been using Enron style accounting and misleading semantics to mask the size.  According to Kotlikoff, the government’s current 20 trillion debt is only a fraction of its fiscal obligations.  It represents the amount of money the government has borrowed only.  It does not account for other current and future obligations the government must pay such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government pensions, and other expenses.

According to Kotlikoff, the fiscal gap between what the government must pay both now and in the future and what the government is projected to collect in taxes and other financial means amounts to 210 trillion.  He also spoke at length about how the government uses semantics to mask borrowing.  He used Social Security funding as one example.  The government does not term transferring Social Security funds from current taxpayers to pay current retirees as borrowing; however, this has the same effects economically as any other type of borrowing.  The government will have to repay current taxpayers when they retire and become entitled to Social Security.  According to Kotlikoff, if the government were to re-label this and other transfer of funds as borrowing, then the government would have to report the debt to be 210 trillion.  Most Americans are unaware of this, yet they will pay a cost for these financial obligations irrespective of whatever terminology the government uses.

Another economics expert, Jangadeesh Gokhale, conducted research on this independent of Kotlikoff, and his conclusion supports Kotlikoff’s argument; however, Gokhale came to a more modest estimate of the debt size.  Gokhale, a former senior economic advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and member of the US Social Security Advisory Board, conducted an analysis in 2013 and estimated the real size of the debt to be 91 trillion.  Kotlikoff and Gokhale came to vastly different numbers because of different baseline assumptions, different datasets, and different fiscal projection time frames.  The public fiscal liability is far larger than what the government has led us to believe.

stock-market-crash

Jeffrey Hummel, an economics and history professor from San Hosea State University, argued in 2012 that the government would default on its debt as a result of this.  In a publication in Econ Journal Watch, Hummel argues that regardless if the debt is 79 trillion (Gokhale’s and Smetter’s 2006 estimate) or 210 trillion, the most likely outcome is that the government will be forced default on its debt.  According to Hummel, there are two obstacles currently preventing the calamity.  The first is the ability of payroll taxes to fund Social Security and health care programs (Medicare Part A).  When the trust funds for these programs are deleted and payroll taxes can no longer fund them, the government will have to obtain money from other areas.   Hummel believes that at this point, investors will begin to require a risk premium on Treasury Bills, and the cost for the US government to borrow money will increase.  This will exacerbate the government’s financial situation and cause investors to require even more risk premium.  The second obstacle is between currency and debt repayment.  Hummel believes the government will allow inflation to depreciate the value of currency until it reaches a tipping point when the government will have to choose between allowing currency become almost worthless and defaulting on its debt.  Hummel believes the US will choose to default.  Part of his reasoning comes from history.  Hummel suggests America will do what the former Soviet Union did in the 1990s which was to choose a partial repudiation of its debt.  Hummel argues that the default will be rapid when the US reaches its tipping point – very much like the speed at which the Soviet Union defaulted.  There are other factors which could cause a tipping point; however, these are Hummel’s two prime ones.  He estimates that the default will happen sometime within the next two decades.  A pessimistic view is that health care program funds will be depleted as soon as 2017, and the tipping point could be reached then.

Publications and opinions from other economists support Hummel’s contention.  Gokhale supports this conclusion in his monograph, The Government Debt Iceberg.  In the forward to it, Phillip Booth, the Program Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs, states that if no adjustments to the current fiscal situation are made, then “sovereign defaults on explicit (Treasury) debt and implicit pension liabilities must ensue.”  Kotlikoff testified that to prevent the default, the government must immediately and permanently raise income taxes by 60% or cut spending by 40%.  Most would agree this is politically unimaginable. Consequently, Kotlikoff believes that it is not a question of if the system will collapse but when.  The idea that the US will default on its debt comes from several well-respected economists.

What would a default mean?

It is safe to say that a significant default on the explicit (Treasury) debt, which currently stands at 20 trillion, would have severe repercussions throughout every aspect of the US economy.   A few years ago, Congress threatened to allow the government to default rather than raise the debt ceiling, and news agencies interviewed financial experts to find out what effect this would have on the economy.  Bloomberg News interviewed dozens of money managers, economists, bankers, traders, and government officials in an attempt to answer to this, and most saw a US default as a financial Armageddon which would very possibly result in a worldwide depression.  NBC News interviewed financial experts and identified seven likely consequences to a default on government debt.  The first and worst consequence would be a worldwide depression and unemployment as financial shock-waves spread through the economy.  Second, there would be a massive sell-off of the dollar causing prices to rise on everything from groceries to gas.  Interest rates would rise and decrease the ability to borrow.  Third, US equities would lose value causing 401k values to drop.  Fourth, Social Security payments would cease.  The fifth impact is banks would freeze operations.  According to NBC News, trillions in bank equity would be wiped out.  Banks would not roll over loans and would demand immediate loan repayments.  Since most small businesses pay their employees with rotating credit, many would not be able to retain their employees.  Sixth, Money Market funds would lose billions of dollars.  Every Money Market fund would be impacted.  And seventh, the global markets would see major disruptions.  Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the IMF, believes that no company in the US would be unaffected by a default.  In an article in Slate, he wrote that the country would see massive unemployment and bank runs along with depleted savings and refusal to issue credit.  Typically, news agencies try to dramatize news in order to attract viewers, and these opinions may be exaggerated.  Even if they are only half-true, a default would be devastating.  It would be a calamity.

bank

The main reason the government will not be able to repay its debt is due to changing demographics in America as well as the rest of the developed world.  America’s population is aging and there will be fewer working age people in coming years to support the older population.  Since the development of the birth control pill and other modern means of contraception as well as legalization of abortion in the developed world, the number of younger people has declined.  Normal age demographic distributions resemble a pyramid.  The bottom of the pyramid is large and represents the numbers of very young people.  The top represents numbers of elderly people, and it is small because as age increases there are fewer elderly.  For the first time in human history, the demographic is shifting to an upside down pyramid where there are fewer young people at the bottom and larger numbers of elderly at the top.   This holds true not only for America but China, Russia, Japan and most European countries as well.  All developed countries’ populations are aging.   Economists are not certain how this will affect economies since there are no historical precedents.  The general belief is that it will slow growth.  Of course, with the increase in elderly people there will be an increase in the number of people dependent on Medicare and Medicaid which will further drain government resources and deter its ability to repay its debt.  Depopulation will be a major factor in our coming economic demise.

There are a few people who make counter-arguments; however, they are weak.  One economist, Scott Sumner, does not disagree with Kotlikoff’s contention on the size of the debt, but he disagrees with Kotlikoff’s view that the country is broke.  He makes the point that if the country were broke, the bond markets would have reacted negatively.  He further makes the case that the courts have allowed the government to scale back the amount in Social Security payments, and suggests the government will do the same for this and other benefits.  The problem with this position is that it does not consider the political power of the elderly.  Currently, AARP represents and lobbies for about 50 million elderly people.  Sumner makes an implicit assumption that there will be a younger population of taxpayers to fund the needs of the older generations.  Another counter argument comes from Clem Chambers who is a writer, entrepreneur, and businessman.  In an article in Forbes titled “Why Doomsters Who Predict the Collapse of Money are Wrong,” Chambers contends that the government will simply maintain inflation to reduce debt.  His analysis is oversimplified and does not take into account many variables especially the depopulation factors and actual debt size.  He provides no supporting data or mathematical model to prove his conclusion.  He does not have any formal training in economics, and there are no economists that agree with his view.  For Chambers, the answer is blistering simple – just let inflation eat away the value of the debt.  Hummel believes that inflation will no more reduce the debt than an excise tax on chewing gum.  Chambers appears to simply have dismissed the argument of collapse without applying much analysis.  Another dissenting opinion comes from Joel Naroff, an economist from Naroff Economic Advisors.  In an Oct 2015 interview with Consumer Affairs reporter Mark Huffman, he stated that “consumers are spending, firms that supply into the U.S. based economy are generally doing well and with wages rising and energy costs low, consumption should remain solid for all of 2016.”  This was in response to questions about any coming economic collapse.  He was speaking about the current and near-term US economy however.  He didn’t address debt or depopulation in any of his statements.  There are few, if any, counter-arguments which include depopulation or the 91 trillion debt in their analysis.

greek-banks-on-holiday

So what will the future be like?

All economists agree that no one really knows, but there is strong probability of a few things.  We can expect high inflation.  Governments create inflation when they print more money to pay down debt.  Both Kotlikoff and Hummel agree that the government will not be able to significantly repay debt through inflation.  Hyperinflation is not likely.  Hyperinflation historically has been the result of a combination of a sudden expansion of the money supply and a weak central government which cannot collect taxes or make budgetary reforms.  It is associated with war, deep civil unrest and civil war.  The US government certainly has no problems collecting taxes, and there are no economists currently predicting hyperinflation; however, Kotlikoff commented in a television interview that the groundwork prepared for it.  We can expect increased taxation to pay for entitlements.  It is very possible we will see wealth taxes.  With reduced working age people, the government will seek to replace the loss of income tax revenue with another form of taxation. The government will likely increase taxes on IRA withdrawals.  We can expect fewer jobs because as the number of consumers decreases, the more businesses will fail.  According to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, two economics professors from Harvard, economic growth slows down an average of 1% when debt of countries with advanced economies reaches 90% of GDP.  The US is projected to reach 100% shortly after 2020.  This is probably a factor in the poor performance of the US economy in recent years.  Another factor affecting the economy will be the decrease in corporate investing.  Many people will move 401K investments out of riskier stocks and into money market accounts as they get older.  We can expect cuts in government services and loss of government jobs.  According to Rebecca Valenzuela, an Australian economist, there will be fewer goods since there will be fewer workers to produce them.  She argues that this will result in people having to stop consuming certain goods and services.  We can also very likely expect the government “official” debt to rise regardless of which political party controls the government.  The poor economic conditions and depopulation will prevent the government from raising the necessary funds to support the growing numbers of elderly dependent on government assistance.  The government will need therefore continue to borrow money.  The future will have numerous economic problems.

So how do you prepare for economic collapse?

In my opinion you have to be financially capable to live on a minimum wage job.  You have to be able to survive if you lose your job and can’t find anything better than a minimum wage job.  If you find yourself living under a bridge and foraging for food in the woods, it will most likely be because you lost your job and couldn’t make ends meet and pay your rent, mortgage, or property taxes with a job that pays $8.00/hr.   If you are able to get by on so little, then you will weather the coming economic storm better than those who are living above their means and lose their jobs.  It would be wise to reduce your personal debt.  It would eliminate concern about creditors repossessing your property.  It will give you more ability to apply money towards other things.  Relocating to a part of the country with a strong and diverse economy would be optimal.  Diversity is important because when one financial sector is doing poor, another is usually doing well.  You can further reduce your need for income by growing your own food.  I would liquidate your IRA.  I don’t think they will be there after economic chaos, inflation, and taxation ruin them.  My wife and I liquidated our IRAs and applied the funds against our mortgage.  Property, like precious metals, will keep value.  I would be prepared to have family members move in with you.  They will need help and may be able to provide help in weathering the storm.  I think the most important prep will be to pray for God to guide you in your efforts to prepare for whatever calamity the future holds.  God knows what is coming and what you will need, and I think He will guide and assist if you ask.  These are the things I recommend to prepare for the coming demise.

Links:

Kotlikoff testimony: http://www.kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/Kotlikoffbudgetcom2-25-2015.pdf

Gokhale Monograph: http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Gokhale-Interactive-PDF.pdf

Hummel monograph: http://econjwatch.org/articles/some-possible-consequences-of-a-us-government-default

Bloomberg article on default: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-07/a-u-s-default-seen-as-catastrophe-dwarfing-lehman-s-fall

Simon Johnson’s Slate article: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/project_syndicate/2011/07/what_if_the_government_defaults.html

NBC News default article: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/whats-worst-could-happen-7-debt-default-doomsday-scenarios-8c11366851

Economics on ageing population: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/8950/society/impact-ageing-population-economy/

Economics of ageing population: http://www.economist.com/node/18651512

  People have been saying the US is on course for an economic collapse for years; however, many of them have no formal education in economics, and almost all gain financially

In small-space gardens, especially those with limited full sun in the first place, we sometimes feel like we have no choices. It doesn’t have to be that way and there are plenty of crop rotation solutions for even small spaces in your garden.

One of the most efficient systems for growing in small spaces are keyhole gardens. Sometimes they’re individuals, sometimes they’re nestled into a system that forms a mandala, and sometimes they’re surrounded by perennials and other beds, much like a pottager garden. The advantage to a keyhole garden is that it closes the gaps between beds and creates a lot more growing space compared to traditional rows, separated beds, and even those pretty pottagers. The downside, however, is that with limited space, sometimes we feel limited in not only what we can grow, but where we can put them. That puts a pretty serious damper on our crop rotations.

The “pizza” garden rotation plan that was mentioned in the first crop rotation article is scaleable. The author lists two – an eighty-foot and a forty-foot diameter that results in whopping 1K-4K square feet of growing space. That could easily be reduced further, but there are some additional factors – like shading – that crop up as we work with small spaces.

Do the rotations matter as much in such small beds?

Because small beds are typically going to be more diverse, with more plants making close contact with each other, we gain “edge” diversity. Just like we find a ton of game and foragable foods at the edges and margins – where rivers slow, where fields meet woods, where the forest is broken by streams – having multiple types of plants in a space creates lots of niche habitat for the microbes.

That soil biology does even better because we typically don’t till our E-shaped and C-shaped raised beds to the same degree we do in-ground and straight beds. The intact soil biology matters. It’s the microbes that let legumes produce excess nitrogen to leave behind, and the microbes that cycle compost into available nutrients. If we practice good culture like seasonal or year-round mulching that prevents compaction, we don’t have to restart the process every spring.

mandala-garden

Healthy soil makes healthy plants. Healthy plants shrug off pests and diseases better.

Even so, the individual plots do start harboring sweet spots for diseases and pests. I once read an author who pointed out that if a cabbage beetle larvae wakes up and finds itself two feet from a patch of kale, it’s just as happy as if you’d planted beets right on top of him again. Same goes for some common corn and tomato-potato pests, and a whole lot of pests that like to eat our brassicas (collards, beets, broccoli). We can restrict ourselves to the brassicas like mustard and upland cress that those pests don’t like, or we can figure out ways to rotate our garden space, put disruptive crops and companions between them, and still have turnips year to year, even with shade-casting plants.

Big plants in small spaces – Why bother?

Square Foot Gardening: The Revolutionary Way to Grow More In Less Space


Small space growers have been turning patios, porches, and decks into bumper crops of veggies for years. Cuba’s oil crisis makes an excellent study of the impact urban growers can have. It’s not just the cut-and-come-again herbs and greens, or things that give a lot of bang for the buck even with just one or two plants, like summer squash and tomatoes. We now have OP sweet corn and popcorn bantams that produce in 65-75 days and are happy growing in a washtub, storage tote, or filing cabinet drawer.

Will those make an enormous impact on today’s diet? Not so much. But they do allow a small-space grower to keep a fresh seed supply going, learn exactly what pests they’re fighting, and be better prepared, even if there’s still a big learning curve after a disaster when they jump into currently lawn-covered dirt.

Remember, not all crises are created equal. Cuba and Argentina are excellent examples where there was a for-real, shopping-stoppage disaster without a complete breakdown of life as we all know it. The Great Depression is another. Victory Gardens here and in the U.K., and the British Ministry of Agriculture’s response to World War II are other excellent examples.

Today’s city dweller or suburbanite may very well be learning ahead of time, so that when it becomes not only acceptable but encouraged to plant in the space between sidewalks and parking lots, they’re ready. They may also be trying to save money for that perfect retreat location, but be practicing now so they recognize pests and nutrient and water problems right away when they do have a big space.

semi-keyhole-raised-bed

A small-space grower might also be working 50-60 hour work weeks, making time for family, and be learning other skills to benefit their 10-20-120 acres. They can’t handle 500-1K-5K square feet of veggies and staples right now. When the time comes, they will bust out their cultivators and be better prepared since they have an established line of crop seeds – propagated for years, proven stock that works well with their exact climate.

There are lots of reasons to be growing in a small space and to be growing no matter where we live. However, those small spaces do sometimes present some challenges, especially with crop rotation.

Small-bed challenge – tall plants & big plants

When we lay out our gardens, the goal is generally to keep tall plants from shading small plants. This means the back-north of our bed is somewhat limited to corn and tomatoes most of the time.

Corn and tomatoes do not give us a great many options in our crop rotations.

It would also be pretty sweet if we didn’t have to devote quite as much space to sweet potatoes and zucchini to keep them from choking-out everything in their path.

Happily, these two problems go hand-in-hand with a solution: we avail ourselves of trellises.

vertical-garden-pvc

We could make trellies and cutesy wigwams from Lowes material. Or we can start looking at other people’s trash in a new light, buy ourselves some garden-friendly paint, and find a child (or fake one, I don’t care) to cover up our seat-removed chairs, DVD racks, deconstructed dog kennels, and mattress box springs with thumbprint butterflies and handprint flowers so our spouses and neighbors have to grumble a little more quietly or find themselves accused of being both environment-killing disposable-world dirtbags and heartless child haters.

So how do we apply our neighbor/spouse-dodging trellie? We add to our list of “tall” plants for the back of the bed.

Now we have corn, tomatoes, cukes and summer squashes that we’re going to cut small, eggplant and autumn squashes and melons that we can suspend in mesh or pantyhose or t-shirts, Malabar spinach, any pole or vining bean that will happily climb, and peas. We can trellis sweet potatoes, too, although we have to dedicate weekly time to encouraging it up instead of out (zig-zagging line around it).

Vertical Gardening: Grow Up, Not Out, for More Vegetables and Flowers in Much Less Space

Since peas, some tomatoes, our big basil plants, and our summer squashes are either a little shorter or a little looser, we can even pack them in front of some of our more shade-tolerant varieties like Malabar and things like Chinese yardlong beans that grow up-up before they bush out, and won’t be affected by shade at the 3-4’ level. We can also stick looser-branching things we can train wide like cucumbers up on a lower trellis in front of our corn once the corn is well established.

If our spouses won’t bury us in the bed, we can make canted pot towers, stacked bucket towers, or soda bottle towers for strawberries, lettuces, spinach, herbs, onions, chickweed, strawberry spinach, and edible/companion flowers to intersperse as our “tall” rotation. Some of them aren’t going to do so hot behind bushy corn or tomatoes, but pruned tomatoes and the lower or looser squashes will be fine.

Growing vertically doesn’t only expand the rotation options by giving us more tall plants for our northern and dawn-or-dusk sections, it can actually increase the total yield of our small space. We need to compost and drop tea bags and coffee right on the surface through the season (you can get free coffee grounds at Starbucks and McD’s), and we will need to water more. Still, we can further decrease our grocery bills and increase our seed stocks doing so.

And we don’t have to spend a fortune or eons doing it.

Small space rotation challenge – succession planting

One of the other key issues with small plots is succession planting. We might still stagger planting for staggered harvests, but the space for that is a little more limited. However, big or small, we like to rush right out there and get our nails dirty again at the end of winter. When we’re dining off limp dehydrated and canned foods and spoonable wheat, corn, rice and beans, the crunch of romaine, Napa and radishes and the roast-and-stab appeal of a 40-60 day turnip is going to be even bigger.freestanding-pallet-planter

The problem? Three of those four examples – and other cool crops like kale and beets – are brassicas. Brassicas have two soil-borne diseases, soil-hatching leaf-eating larvae, and some aerial threats that inherit the memory of where the buffet is laid out. If we’re not rotating our brassicas, we start losing them to pests and disease.

What’s not a brassica? Spinach and chard, a lot of the lettuces, radicchio – so there are some options.

We can congestion plant marigolds and nasturtiums to help combat brassica pests. That’s not a marigold between every other plant. That’s a blanket of marigolds that we dot with cabbages. The marigolds work not even so much for this year, but more like legumes and nitrogen-fixation – they leave behind things that benefit other plants, in this case, limiting soil pests for future brassicas.

Our soda-bottle towers can help us here, too. We can also make ladders of bottles, bread pans, or storage totes to grow larger cabbages, root brassicas, and kale in, then compost that soil, microwave or bake that soil, or rotate that soil to herbs and flowers the next year to prevent a beetle’s sauerkraut-killing children from just leaping out and eating our stuff again.

That leaves us with most things like broccoli and Brussel sprouts that truly take up a footprint in our beds. And since we now have a wealth of things that can be about the same height like peas, beans, squash, and sweet potatoes that we can rotate with them, that’s just not a very big deal anymore.

Legumes

Peas and beans will share some pests, too, but usually, in tight beds full of diversity, that stops being as much of a problem. With rich soil, we can throw away the companion planting “bad buds” myth of peas and onions, which means our alliums help fight off those pests along with our marigolds, alyssum, and nasturtium.

So, again, the high diversity in our small spaces, keyhole, mandala, or E-shaped beds helps us.

Rotations in miniaturehorizontal-bottle-tower

With all the options available to us as Craigslist hunters and internet gatherers, even small space growers can be very successful, not only in yield but in the rotation systems that build and protect soil, and make future yields just as successful. We can increase our options by including edible and medicinal annual flowers and herbs. We can further increase our rotation options with tiered containers of perennials like strawberry, thyme, and chives — which we can pack into the “keyhole” slots or the walkways between raised beds and cover for the winter.

We’ll be more successful if we adopt rotation systems, regardless of our scale. We can save money on soil and plant treatments and sometimes on our fertilizers by doing so, allowing increases in budgets for other preparedness goals. We can limit some of the amendments and treatments we have to make room to stockpile.

We might find some joy in a garden that’s not making us pull our hair out with a new problem every week. Importantly, we’ll be more familiar with crop rotation systems should a time arise that we must increase our food production.

When we look at things differently and don’t handcuff ourselves because of our space, bodies, budgets or time when we start seeing challenge-solution situations instead of problems, we set ourselves up for success – not only in gardening efficiently and effectively but in every aspect of our lives.

In small-space gardens, especially those with limited full sun in the first place, we sometimes feel like we have no choices. It doesn’t have to be that way and there

 

The argument to prep for bugging out or sheltering in place is a big one in prepping circles. Sheltering in place is the most comfortable because it is your home. And it’s the easiest. Why learn to hunt or garden if you have a years’ worth of rations in your basement? While prepping to bug out is smaller, cheaper, and easier to hide from the non-preppers who may criticize you. Some say it all boils down to what you are prepping for – some sort of national emergency, oil crises, natural disaster, mass civil unrest, pandemic, etc. Or where you live – in a city, suburb or rural area. But I always point out an often overlooked threat that immediately follows a true TEOTWAWKI situation – fire. No matter the reason, it doesn’t really matter unless you are always ready to bug out.

A true TEOTWAWKI scenario is when people stay home from work to protect their families. That is when society as we know it stops to function. No cops, firemen, doctors, etc. So no one will be around to put out the fires that occur naturally, accidentally, or intentionally. And that’s a threat whether you’re in a city, town, or in the country. Think your secret hideaway in the woods is safe? Most places in the developed world don’t let natural forest fires grow and clear out the underbrush that builds up. Usually they are put out as soon as they start. So any forest fire post-collapse can build up to be extremely powerful. If you live in the country, grass fires can be intentionally set and it’s no big deal. But if an entire town or a city goes up it can become an unstoppable force. Putting all your eggs in one basket, like being totally dependent on your year’s supply of long-term food, or planting all your heirloom seeds to grow all your food can become useless when an unstoppable fire is approaching to wipe out your crops.

When bugging out you have less to worry about from fires because you are already on the move with your supplies. But where are you bugging out to? Of course not all of us can afford a countryside retreat. If you live in the city with nowhere to bug out to you still have options. For example, I live in a small town but I still have neighbors. And when the SHTF I may find that my castle is now The Alamo surrounded by a mob of people who were not prepared for TEOTWAWKI but know my family was. I can’t afford a secluded getaway. So I keep a list of farmland, woodland, and undeveloped places in the country up for sale. Hopefully no one would notice if they were to suddenly become occupied post-collapse. And if the rightful owners showed up I’ll offer my help as a working hand, or security.

5000 Watt 200AH Solar Generator & (2) 100 Watt Solar Panels

The point is we all should prep with an “Always ready to bug out” mindset. Any shelter in place or country getaway is subject to the threat of fire. And those who bug out usually have a second location to get to, like a cabin with solar power and a shed full of freeze-dried biscuits and gravy. Which is still susceptible to the threat of fire. So I advocate for a simpler and practical approach to prepping. It may save you time and money in the long run.

First off everyone should be able to survive whatever situation you prep for with ONLY what you can carry in a moment’s notice, i.e. your bug out bag. That means you need to be able to forage, hunt, trap, build a shelter, and clean your drinking water with what you carry on you. Knowledge is always the best force multiplier. Learning practical survival skills is the first step to prepping.

Secondly, prepping is part gadgets/tools, and part skills. Too much emphasis is put on tools and equipment that will only weigh down your pack and won’t be of any real use when you need to hike 20 miles a day to escape a massive fire or get to your hide out in the country if taking a vehicle is not an option. Learn from the ultralight hikers who cut their toothbrushes down to 3 inches to conserve weight and space in their pack. Acquiring a compact, lightweight and durable sleeping bag, tent, and other gear is a great idea. They may cost an extra dollar, but if you’ve ever carried your entire campsite on your back while hiking all day then you’ll know what I mean when I say the compact and lightweight gear is worth it.

Likewise, too much emphasis is put on skills that have little practicality post-collapse. Sure basket weaving can be useful but wouldn’t your time be better spent honing your shooting skills? Or learning herbal medicines? I learn my skills starting with what I think will be the most useful overall then work up from there. I plan to speak more on this in a future article.

hiking

Have a plan to get out if sheltering in place is no longer an option.

Thirdly, planning is everything. Plan for emergencies and stock up on some supplies. Plan to get out if sheltering in place is no longer an option. If you are able to get a country getaway and stock it with food and power and supplies, then do it. If possible, try to pick a location that would have a decent chance at surviving a forest fire. In getting to your country getaway, have safe zones along your route in case of obstacles or unknown threats. Plan a scenario if using a vehicle is not an option. Libraries and museums are rarely looted in civil unrest, or emergencies because there’s not many supplies to get there. But a library does offer books on subjects you may need to brush up on. State parks can offer lots of cover but in the event of a mass exodus from a city, everyone will be looking for a new home and state parks may become overcrowded quickly. And if you have to leave your home, to bug out to your cabin in the woods or to find a new homestead, you still need to have your bag packed to leave in a moment’s notice. If a disaster were to pop up suddenly such as fire, looters, zombie hybrid grizzly bear, then you can still be able to survive in a “Oh shit, run!” situation.

Like I say, always be prepared to bug out. Because we cannot always plan for every situation and until you have the skills of a caveman and can walk out into the wilderness and survive with nothing then you always need to have your tools at hand that you need to survive. In a true TEOTWAWKI situation nowhere will be safe from the threat of wild fires. Never become dependent on anything you can’t take with you.

  The argument to prep for bugging out or sheltering in place is a big one in prepping circles. Sheltering in place is the most comfortable because it is your home.

When preparing for emergencies in our lives, preppers often tend to focus first on reactionary needs. We can envision the possibility of a disastrous event happening and we plan for and prepare a response for that event. If we are unable to make it to the store for some reason, we store food and water to take care of our family’s most basic needs. Should we be attacked, we train for self-defense, acquire tools and supplies to even the odds and make plans to defend our castle in the worst case scenario. Many preppers view their plans as solid and naturally expect the other 90% of the population who (we are convinced) hasn’t made any preparations to eventually, some day, show up and try to take what they have. In this case, there is always the expectation of conflict and we routinely discuss how we envision that ending.

But what if we could modify our thought process for a while and first plan on avoiding conflict when SHTF instead of considering violence as the inevitable outcome of the prepper haves versus the unprepared have-nots? For those of you who have been reading the Final Prepper since we started, no I haven’t gone all soft. I still very much expect and prepare for violent action if necessary, but I think too often that is the default prepper or survivalist’s response. I certainly don’t want to ever have to defend my life with deadly force, but I believe in my core that I will do what is necessary to protect the lives of my friends family and any strangers I see who need it. I thought this latest installment of our Back to Basics series could focus on some alternatives to conflict that could end up saving lives in the right situation.

The scenarios I mention below and what usually flavor most articles on this site will assume that some massive disaster has happened. The SHTF event you have been preparing for has occurred and almost instantly you have choices to make. How you decide to handle each situation could mean the difference between coming out alive or suffering needlessly.

Why should we try to avoid conflict?

There are many reasons I can see for eventually engaging in conflict, especially when we are considering a true SHTF scenario. I would argue that there could be just as many if not more reasons why should be avoiding conflict at all costs. Perhaps it’s simpler to say that conflict avoidance should be the first tact you try. Escalations may be a foregone conclusion, but only when you have no other options. Some readers and commenters will say that when lives are on the line, it’s safer to simply blast someone in the face than try to bargain or negotiate but I would argue that taking that approach goes against some of the philosophy that I believe most preppers believe in.

Preppers want to live. The want to succeed, to thrive, to overcome obstacles. Preppers and prepping is about hope even when the events we seem to fear would lead many to feel hopeless. I believe that there is a reason we are prepping and it isn’t simply to see how many zombie bodies and empty shell casings we can pile up at our feet. We want a different life perhaps, but it doesn’t automatically come at the expense of everyone else.

Conflict with another person, or people will take a toll on you. Sometimes that toll is lives. Other times it could be the loss of close friends or family. It could be a deal to trade goods that goes the wrong way, the loss of someone who can support you, or the loss of a resource you may need to survive. In a true SHTF scenario, your little survival group is going to need all the help it can get so playing nice as much as is prudent will be to your advantage.

Avoiding Conflict with Looters

I think that one of the first effects of a major SHTF scenario will be migration out of the major metropolitan areas. Looting will follow as the people who stayed behind scrounge for supplies they want in homes and businesses. Any location that appears to have resources the looters need will be a target when the threat of incarceration is gone. When there is no longer any rule of law, even little old grannies will be looting if they want to survive.

looting

Looters in the days closely following the SHTF event will be looking for targets of opportunity. They certainly won’t take on an armed group at first but as the situation deteriorates, they could come back and with more practice and armed with greater numbers. Sure, you could put on a show of force, but you might want to save that for later.

The concepts of the Grey Neighbor come into play here and by simply making your house appear to already have been looted; you might avoid someone viewing your house as a target. Throw some trash and clothes in the yard. Smash a window – provided you can seal that back up with some black plastic. Spray paint some graffiti on the front wall and rip the screen door off one hinge. It may work just enough to make lazier looters skip on past your house.

Avoiding Conflict with your neighbors

This one is trickier because looters might not live next door to you, but your neighbors will be able to watch what is going on at your house all day long. The last thing you want is to have your neighbor working against you. They could turn you in to the authorities as a hoarder and all your supplies could be confiscated. Or, they could form a group against you to take what you have by force, citing the common good. Neighbors would ideally be part of your larger group well in advance of any conflict, but that still could arise if they are desperate.

bad-neighbors

After the event has settled, check in on your neighbors and see if they need help with anything. It will arouse much less suspicion to dole out some charity early on in the form of food and water when normal supplies would not be exhausted. Offer to let them use some generator time possibly. If you wait for 3 months after the stores have been closed and offer them a sack of rice and some beans and then will be very curious as to why you still have supplies and what else you might have. Help them out and if you feel you can trust them, invite them into your group for mutual aid. They might only be able to contribute extra, willing hands but it would be better than having them as your enemy if you can afford the burden. As with everything else, you will have to make choices about who you open up to.

Avoiding Conflict with your survival group

Many of us already have a stocked bug out retreat ready to go. Even the most prepared group is going to have high levels of stress when you are forced into a less than ideal situation after the SHTF. Tempers will flare and there will be decisions that are met with disagreement. In a very toxic situation, the group could splinter leading to power struggles and worse.

Any survival group that is going to succeed will need to have a set of clearly defined rules and everyone’s strict adherence will be necessary. The longer you have been a group and the more times you have been together the better off you will fare but the larger picture is that the group’s survival depends on each member contributing and sometimes sacrificing for the good of the overall group. Negotiation skills and open communication will be key.

Avoiding Conflict with your family

For most of us, our survival group is simply our family. We don’t have a cadre of ex-mil buddies who have been training for years and have fortified bunkers under our ultra-rural enclave in the hills. We will just have the people we are around every day, maybe a couple of friends or extended family that you take in. For people in this situation, I think that fear will be more heightened for the majority of them; they won’t have had the opportunity to think anything through as you have potentially. The unknowns and worry will be huge stressors that they will have to come to grips with and you as the leader will have to manage.

familyconflict

As a leader, you are going to need to exhibit a greater sense of calm than you probably ever would in your day-to-day life simply because everyone will be looking to you for answers. If you are the go-to prepper in the family, there will be many questions. Every decision you make will likely be questioned because the people you are surrounded with don’t know what you do and bring their own opinions and beliefs to every situation.

In the very beginning, as soon as it is practical, you need to sit everyone down and tell them everything you know, what you plan to do and why you think your decisions are best. It may be necessary to get group consensus or create a micro dictatorship for a while. It really depends on the crisis, the people you are dealing with and your style. The main goal is to keep everyone safe and these are probably the people you care most about. Let them know they will be fine, you have a plan and you are prepared. Then prove it with your actions.

Avoiding Conflict with other survivors

Lastly, if you have made it through the disaster, you will be dealing with other survivors. I believe neighborhoods will form communities very quickly post-disaster but due to geography, neighborhoods might remain somewhat isolated. As time goes on, you will meet other people and hopefully form friendships, perhaps barter or simply form a larger community to share resources. Every other group has been through their own tragedy, they have their own fears and securities. Understanding this and helping them mutually, after precautions have been made will be better than some turf war over the garden.

In almost every situation I can think of besides someone kicking down your front door, or shooting at you from the wood line, there is a very good reason to try to avoid conflict. Strangers can become friends. Even enemies can let past grievances die. In a SHTF scenario, if you want to live, avoiding conflict will be one of the highest priorities.

When preparing for emergencies in our lives, preppers often tend to focus first on reactionary needs. We can envision the possibility of a disastrous event happening and we plan for

 

There is a very popular Hollywood movie, although not a box office smash at the time that has aged incredibly well and developed a bit of a cult following, it has even spawned an Internet church, which offers free ordination, and it’s own festival. One could say that simply imitating “The Dude” from the Big Lebowski is no way to go about being prepared for life and emergencies that may come up. I would agree with that, it is not a prepper film, nor is the character to be emulated, but that’s just, my opinion, man. However the idea they casually present in the film is taken from a natural law and a verse from Ecclesiastes 1:4 “One generation passes away and another generation comes: but the Earth abides forever”, this is something that we can all learn and benefit from.

Growing up it wasn’t called survival, it wasn’t about being prepared to flee or hunker down, it wasn’t about being armed for the sake of defense from looters, marauders or a terrorist attack although when armed for whatever reason you are better prepared to attend to any of the above, it wasn’t about fear of the unknown or possible outcomes of an unknowable future. It wasn’t tactical and it certainly wasn’t cool and there was no fear going into it or the expectation of something bad happening. It was called living and being ready to face whatever work and uncertainty any day on the farm might bring. It was about doing the daily chores, checking the pumps and irrigation, feeding the chickens and shoveling the manure, baling hay and putting up for the winter months, canning the garden surplus and sharing the rest. It was about neighbors and community, it wasn’t perfect but it worked and continues to today.

It is a mindset that can only be learned by doing, when all is as it should be the body does what the mind tells it to do and only you should be able to control how you think. Notice, I said should, as all to often in today’s society we confuse our own free will with what we have been spoon fed by many sources, good and bad.

So having the right mind is paramount and with this mindset comes the stoicism and steadfastness that leads to quiet strength in emergencies, natural disasters and the ability to deal with whatever, whichever wicked and /or good things that will come your way in this crazy little thing called life. Let’s look at how you can put this mindset to your own prosperous use and for the sake of definition let’s give it a name.

Leatherman Wave Multitool

I would maybe call it “country thinking” or “farmer thinking” or “we don’t have the money to buy new clothes, so we better make some thinking” but none of these really roll of the tongue or could be featured in an infomercial or self-help guide, so let’s give it a fancy, modern, branded name. “The WILL to abide”

By definition “to abide”: accept or act in accordance with (a rule, law, decision or recommendation). I want to bring in a laser focus on the later part “act in accordance with” this means that as things are presented, as they come to your immediate need of attention they will be dealt with and this is really a natural law. Think about it, you are getting in the car, you have the day planned, you know where you are going and what you are going to get done, nature suddenly calls, well if your smart, naturally, you will abide. Another example might be that you are loading your car trunk full of whatever supplies, sundries or materials you have just procured and the trunk wont close, but you have twine in your trunk so you place a well-practiced knot and a truckers hitch and on your merry way you go, this is also “the will to abide”. You need to cut the twine for another purpose (because if you know your knots and hitches there is no need to cut the twine for a simple hitch) so you take the old timey pocketknife or modern multi-tool or whatever it is that you always have with you because you know you will need it and you cut the twine. The blade is sharp because you abide by the fact a sharp knife cuts cleanest and a dull knife is more dangerous, that a cut from a sharp knife heals quicker than a gash from a dull one, you know this is true so you abide.

How to achieve “The WILL to abide”, for some it is quite natural, some people have had very pragmatic upbringings and having “the WILL to abide” isn’t second nature but rather is nature and how they will deal with everything that crosses their path, barely thought about but for others it is an empowered awakening that brings them to the point of realizing that they are responsible in how they process their day-to-day interactions with the world we all share. For others still it is a tool that needs sharpening, just like that pocketknife so it is ready to use when needed.

sunset

Remember the serenity prayer regardless of your denomination or belief system it applies universally.

#1 – Surrender the fear:

You will never have everything you need every time all the time, you are not in control of the larger picture, you cannot carry every conceivable tool or replacement part for every possible situation. Realize that things are not really in your control and that’s okay. Become at ease with it, abide by it, embrace the fact that none of us are impervious and you simply cannot be prepared for everything. If a large enough asteroid were to hit the earth and blow it apart, all your preps and respective molecules will be floating in the vacuum of space and that’s that. With liberty from fear comes the freedom to act. Remember the serenity prayer regardless of your denomination or belief system it applies universally “ God/Buddha/Vishnu/Spaghetti Monster grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference”

#2 – Embrace change:

Change is a changeless state; it is constant and ongoing, unstoppable. Winter begets spring, which begets summer, which begets fall. You crawled, then walked, then ran, and then used a cane, then laid down to your final rest. Reject your hard-wired normalcy bias, it is a chemical deception and will not last, make yourself aware of the fact that everything is going to change, then refer to #1. When you are putting up a new building drive by one that is falling down, in disrepair and remind your self that what is now brand new will someday most likely be in the same state of decomposition, you can tell yourself maybe that won’t happen but most likely it will and over a long enough time line it is certain.

#3 – Be discerning in your thoughts:

Don’t fall into every fear mongering headline the mainstream and alternative media feeds you or avoid them altogether if you wish and cut the cord but the same goes for the prepper community, there are certain things I am certain of personally and will believe till the day I die, that we have not been told the truth about 9/11, that the banks knew they would be bailed out in 2008 and that big pharma does not always have our best interests at heart. However there are things that are just plain fear porn and manipulations used to make prepared people, people who will abide seem like foolish chicken little’s as well as sell overpriced gear and food and gladly take your hard-earned commodities. Cultivate your common sense and don’t be fooled, search for truth but don’t be an absolutist, see # 2

planting

Do you have a can of seeds but no experience gardening?

4# – Live the prep:

Abraham Lincoln once said “ If I had six hours to cut down a tree, I would spend four hours sharpening the axe” What does that really mean? It means that dull and inefficient tool use is dangerous and wasteful, on many levels. It means that if you have your 1 or 2-year supply of food, are you ready to implement it? Are you rotating it? Do you know how to cook with it? Are you using the tools you have in the most effective ways they can be used? You may have a thousand rounds of .308 ammo and the spiffiest new scope on your AR-10 down in the basement but is your scope sighted in, do you know how to use the Mil-Dots on that thing to allow for windage and declination or elevation? Do you have a can of seeds but no experience gardening? Ask your self these real questions and give yourself real answers, then act accordingly and practice, abide with the idea that someday soon you may need them for real but implement them now and use them now, there is always an excuse and a solution, if your apartment doesn’t have the green spaces for a garden, start something in your windowsill, anything to raise your experience level and your personal value to what is now and what you will need to abide.

Develop Community Now:

I have several, rather distant, semi-acquaintances that can quote every new meteor threat and site You Tube scripture as to the moment the world is going to stop spinning and how ready they are to be lone wolves in this brave new world. Well, good on them, thankfully they are all childless and spouse-less and their specific genetic mutations will not pass on. Humankind is not a solitary animal, never has been and never will be, sure we have a small percentage of curmudgeons and hermits but thankfully it is just that, a small percentage. We need each other now folks and we will need each other after a flood, hurricane, mega virus or an EMP, so the logical thing is to build a network of like-minded people in your extant community and a good cognitive knowledge of others that would be useful in a post SHTF scenario. I have lots of sewing supplies but I don’t have a loom, but I know someone who does. I have eggs, fish and rabbits and I know quite a few people who raise a hog or seven, see where I’m going here? No matter what happens in the future “The WILL to abide” means community.

The Will to abide is about power: friends, self power, community power and the power of the human spirit to adapt, change and grow, it is about being prudent, resourceful, prepared, self-sufficient and a whole bunch of other fallen from favor adjectives. The fact that society as a whole doesn’t share our perspective that things are always changing and that we are overdue for a larger than normal event doesn’t diminish our existing society. It simply means that it will not abide.

  There is a very popular Hollywood movie, although not a box office smash at the time that has aged incredibly well and developed a bit of a cult following, it

 

Fire making – as we are used to – results from a chemical reaction and some friction (whether from a match or lighter). Even those lighters with a glowing element deploy the principles for fire lighting. In the absence of matches and lighters (and ignoring the ‘elbow grease’ methods for making fire) several chemical reactions result in combustion, without requiring additional help from a match to get them going. In a desperate situation you can make chemical fires without matches or a lighter.

Three elements need to be present to constitute a fire – heat, oxygen and fuel. Fuel may be solid, liquid or (oxidizable) gas. When striking a match or flicking a lighter, the friction provides the heat as a spark, open air contributes the oxygen and the fuel is what you supply – in most cases a carbonaceous or nitrogenous substance. To kill a fire you remove one of the three elements – in most cases the oxygen (by smothering), but also by cooling or isolating the fuel.

There are many chemical reactions that lead to combustion. Some are more dangerous and people with no experience in this regard should stay away from those. For instance stay away from black powder used as propellant in shooting or blasting. This is an explosive. How many times have we seen (on TV) that a bullet is pulled from a cartridge and the propellant then used for starting a fire, or that barrel of black powder used as a distance fuse. Those are very controlled circumstances and rather dicey, even when using nitro propellant. That’s (reasonably) ok if yours is nitro based, but keep away from black powder. The thing is that black powder is compressed (e.g. in a muzzle loader) so that there is no airspace over the powder. In contrast, nitro-based propellants are normally (not always) not compressed and an airspace is allowed between it and the bullet (mild compression in big bores are not uncommon). Never overdo anything, and especially so when deploying the might of nature.

There are very simple chemical methods by which a fire can be started. This brief article explains four ways to make fire using chemical reactions. No matches or lighter are needed to start the fire.

WARNING. PLEASE USE MINUTE AMOUNTS AND VOLUMES OR YOU MIGHT SCORCH YOUR EYEBROWS/MUSTACHE/BEARD!

Chemical Fire #1

  • Potassium permanganate (in some places also known as Condy’s crystals) – an oxidant
  • Glycerine – supplying the fuel
  • Water – as reaction facilitator (it dissolves the potassium permanganate and accelerates the reaction)

Add a few drops of glycerine to a few crystals of potassium permanganate. Accelerate the reaction by adding a couple of drops of water. Alternatively a solution of the potassium permanganate can be made and (drop wise) added to the glycerine.

Chemical Fire #2

  • Acetone (as in nail polish remover)
  • Sulfuric acid (as in battery acid from the car – it’s appreciably weaker but should still work; the full strength version is preferable but should be handled with care as it is seriously corrosive). Keep this away from water as the adding of either to the other also generates a lot of heat and sputtering.
  • Potassium permanganate (Condy’s crystals)

Soak a tissue with acetone to make it more flammable. Draw sulfuric acid into a glass pipette (if you do not have a pipette do not use a metal spoon, rather a sturdy plastic one). Dip the pipette into potassium permanganate so that the tip of the pipette is coated with a few crystals. Dispense the sulfuric acid onto the tissue. The potassium permanganate and sulphuric acid mix to produce manganese heptoxide and fire. If using the plastic spoon, let the sulfuric acid drip onto the acetone soaked tissue and trickle some potassium permanganate crystals onto the tissue. Again, keep your face away from the vicinity of the reaction.

Chemical Fire #3

  • Sodium Chlorate crystals (an alternative for calcium chlorate which can be used to purify water)
  • Sugar (yep that sweet stuff) in crystalline form (and for the diet conscious, xylitol should work as well – this is the fuel supply)
  • Sulfuric acid

Mix a small amount of sodium chlorate and sugar (really small, like tip of a tea-spoon of each). Initiate the reaction by adding a few drops of sulfuric acid. Watch the eyebrows or mustache/beard.

 

Chemical Fire #4

  • Ammonium Nitrate powder (component of fertilizer)
  • Finely ground Zinc powder (I guess you can make your own by working at a piece of Zinc – that’s the element – with a fine file)
  • Hydrochloric acid (pool acid is useful)

Mix together a small amount of ammonium nitrate and zinc powder. Initiate the reaction by adding a few drops of hydrochloric acid.

Chemical Fire Safety

If you are performing a demonstration of chemical fire using any of these reactions, use very small amounts of the chemicals listed for each fire. Wear proper safety gear and work on a fire-safe surface. Should you intend to actually make fire in any of these ways, have your kindling close at hand as a chemical fire is not lazy. It will burn out quickly if you do not utilize it. Best is to actually initiate it on a dry leaf, paper sheet or piece of bark, that will also be consumed in the reaction and serve as a kind of ‘starter’.

Should you carry any of these chemicals in your BOB/BIB or store them in your stash, please ensure absolute isolation from one another (in the BOB/BIB) and proper ventilation (in the stash). When actually starting a fire in any of these ways, prevent inhaling any fumes which may be generated during the process, as these may irritate your airways and nasal/oral linings.

Not all of these chemicals are necessarily freely available everywhere, but they are not uncommon. When stored properly most (if not all of them) should last for years. Acetone is very volatile and may evaporate if not sealed effectively. Similarly, hydrochloric acid tends to lose its chlorine, bind oxygen and convert to less active forms which may not be as effective in fire starting. The chlorine is the oxidizing agent there.

So, check it out – BUT BE SAFE OUT THERE!

  Fire making – as we are used to – results from a chemical reaction and some friction (whether from a match or lighter). Even those lighters with a glowing element

Figuring out Feed – Creating healthy ratios for sustainable livestock

Continuing in the saga of feeding our livestock from our own area – or just cutting some of the feed costs and stocking we have to do – we land on the task of figuring out exactly what and how much of which feeds to give our animals. Just like humans, livestock has varying needs, and the needs change as they go through their life stages. There are three main components to feeding anything: mass – getting bellies full (because hangry livestock leave their enclosures more and are less pleasant to handle), getting the right amount of calories, and nutrient breakdown. One of the most common nutritional components that come up is protein. Calculating a feed mix and protein are things I’ll point out this time around. Charts and articles are pretty easy to come by for how much mass various livestock needs, and the amount and quality of forage livestock is given is so variable, I’m not touching on that one right now.

Calculating livestock feed

There’s a really handy tool called a Pearson Square that can help when we decide to feed livestock. Basically, it allows you to reach your desired total protein percentage using sets of known feeds.

Say I want a 22% protein feed mix for young game birds using my own duckweed and commercial milo.

I draw a square with my target protein percentage in the middle, and starting on the left, put the protein ratio of my feeds at the top and bottom (duckweed – 50% protein; milo – 9% protein). I subtract diagonally: 50% minus 22%, bottom right = 28; 22% – 9%, top right = 13. The numbers give me the parts per total of my feed components – which are read across, not diagonally. In this case, it would be 28 parts milo to 13 parts duckweed, 41 parts total.

pearson-square
“Parts” is like saying cups, gallons, pounds, bushels – whatever. It’s a ratio, like cuppa-cuppa-cuppa cobbler – each cup being one part. (1 cup each sugar, flour, and milk; 1 stick melted butter; mix in bottom of pan/dish; pour 2-4 pints or cans of pie filling, preserves or partly drained canned fruit over it; bake 45-60 minutes at 350 degrees F; add heavy or whipped or clotted cream as desired; nom-nom away.) Your chicken or goat cobbler just isn’t always “1”, sometimes it’s 5 and sometimes it’s 35 – just depends on what your ingredients are.

I can reduce that and ballpark it if I want to. The example is 31.71% duckweed (13 divided by 41) and 68.29% milo for Mix 1. I can call that one-third and two-thirds and be pretty darn happy.

Pearson Squares can be used to calculate individual species and animal needs from the same base feeds available in your area, or can be used to decide how much of a supplement to grow compared to a main feed source.

To do multi-feed calculations, you create your first mix, then a second mix, and use those and their total protein counts as the components of a third square. There’s an example of working through that below the simple square here, and examples of figuring out total percentages of the mixes here: https://courses.ecampus.oregonstate.edu/ans312/six/ration_4.htm

metzer-ducks

Image/Chart(s): The amount of protein needed at various life stages, purpose, and species can vary significantly – geese and ducks and chickens have similar needs as starters and layers, but finishing meat birds and maintenance-weight waterfowl and game bird breeding stock have almost double the needs of meat chickens and roosters.

You can also create multiple Pearson squares using pairs of available feeds you’d like to mix and your target protein, then add them and their various parts to create a very large total parts:
(B+D from mix 1) + (G+H from mix 2) + (K+L from mix 3) = M-the total parts of the feed mix
It could be 4 parts, 16 parts, 9 parts, 28 parts, 11 parts, and 22 parts for a mix with 90 parts to get a total protein (X-center of all 3 squares).

Happily, there are automatic plug-in-the-numbers calculators online for a Pearson’s square.

Colorado State has some nice pubs with livestock feed options, breakdowns of needs, calculation examples, Pearson’s square worksheet, and conversions.  If livestock keeping is a topic of interest, both are worth reading and possibly printing out:

When we start talking about tree and shrub fodders and alternative feeds like wigglers and black soldier fly larvae, it can get a little more difficult, although some of the calculators are catching up with duckweed and fish and insects. You can get additional information about the protein content of various possible feed components from here.

Additional information for ducks – written for pets, but nice breakdown by age and by percent of feed and nutritional needs – is available here.

Protein

There’s a reason the feed calculators and so much of the data about various feeds talks about protein – protein is important. Protein is where we get our amino acids that make up enzymes (which perform every single function in our bodies). Protein is the building block of muscle. It’s not only how we grow, it’s how we repair damaged tissue and rebuild tissue from work/labor (like walking around a pasture, chewing cud, or climbing out of our pasture).

pj-barnyard

Many of our homestead animals are pure vegetarians, requiring foliage-based proteins.

Protein becomes a major talking point, because our livestock are largely vegans, with a few vegetarians and omnivores thrown in there. Our livestock has largely been refined and refined over and over to produce critters that bulk up at rates our ancestors even fifty and a hundred years ago would have taken as witchcraft. To do that, though, to put all that protein into eggs, into milk, and into muscles we’re going to eat (or feed our other critters), they have to be consuming higher rates of protein than ever before in history.

Protein is also where our feed costs are typically highest, especially animal-based proteins instead of plant-based proteins. If we can produce even some of our own protein, we can start reducing our dependency and costs.

ducks-ugly-duckweed

Images: The ability to produce some of our livestock’s protein needs using something that grows and recovers quickly and is easy to grow from animal wastes like duckweed that any livestock and even dogs can safely consume can reduce feed costs and feed store reliance.

That’s somewhere else where the nice Pearson Calculator comes into play.

Say I’m not ready to cut the cords yet, but I’d like to start making some headway. I can take my base raise-out or maintenance feed for either, and use it as a “grain” with it’s 12-16% protein content, then plug-in my desired protein supplement.

Conversely, I can get my really good layer or baby game bird feed, and instead of wasting money feeding it to birds that need 14-20% protein instead of 22-25% protein, I can use a Pearson square to figure out how to cut it with my own home-raised grasses, grains, and veggie crops to get livestock exactly the portions they need and increase my feed-cost efficiency.

Running those squares and applying general rules of thumb and guidelines by species can also help tell me how many minnows, pounds of duckweed, and bushels of barley I want to produce to decrease my feed store reliance. Doing so can help me figure out how much growing space I need for feed components instead of just winging it.

pj-sheep-and-goats

Images – Protein needs change by species, life stage, age, and purpose.

Different species need different amounts of protein in their diet, and at different life stages protein needs change again.

Pregnant and lactating females, laying females, “dry” dairy or breeding animals or birds in non-laying states, molt, and young birds at varying stages all need differing percentages of protein. There’s always some wiggle room, and especially in the cases of birds and dairy animals, the forage quality, time on forage, and forage space and competition can make a big difference in what they need to have provided and what they can get for themselves.

goat-nutritional-needs

Charts: Goat and rabbit bucks have similar total protein needs, but lactating hares have much higher needs than nursing and milking goats.

Some quick-fire rules of thumb for feed to go with the info-chart overload:

  • Game birds need more than chickens at almost every stage (turkeys, ducks, guineas, geese, quail – even domestic lines) and many won’t eat the same leafy vegetation that chickens and even grazing geese will, so alternative sources or milled/mash feeds have to be provided
  • Too much protein creates donkeys that are headstrong and wily, and can actually make them sick, cause hoof problems, and kill them
  • You really are what you eat, and any beekeeper or duck or bear hunter can testify to it: Eggs and meat will change flavor and richness based on their feed source, especially the protein sources for omnivores
  • Just buying a game bird laying or chick mix with super high protein amounts and heaving it to all the fowl is wasting money, even more so if that poultry has forage areas or garden supplements like slug boards that are already covering some of their needs for *free*
  • What we ask of an animal (production, yield, labor, effort in feeding) affects how much they need fed and how much protein and calcium they require for health; a growing-out steer and a milking nanny need a lot more than a weight-maintenance stud or a just-bred or dry-phase doe

chickens

The amount of good, high-quality forage our livestock has access to changes the amounts and types of feeds and supplements they require from us. Providing livestock with species-specific areas like high forages for goats and flower-and-insect-rich pastures and woods-edge habitat for poultry can also decrease the chances of illnesses that prevent them from making use of provided feeds.

Go ahead and capture and print or save to our favorite low-energy EMP-proof device some of the charts of both needs and protein components. Find the ones that apply to calcium as well, because that’s a biggie, too. Do it for all the domestic stock, not just those you have or are considering, so that the information is already on hand.

Having that information when the internet and feed bags are no longer available may help you turn your algae-and-microbe clogged pond into a resource for barter, or just help keep some of the livestock in your area trucking through. The more genetic possibilities we have with livestock, the longer we can keep operations going.

Pearson Squares are designed for protein, but they can be used to calculate any nutritional value based off forage or milled feeds, to include calcium and fiber percentages for each type of livestock.

pj-goats

Pearson Square & Protein

There are charts and articles and references for just about any type of domestic stock’s protein needs. They do have other needs. Calcium is a big one, and it doesn’t always get its due outside laying hens. However, protein makes up an enormous part of the success in raising animals, especially active animals, breeding dams, layers, and meat or dual-purpose breeds. Since it’s also the higher-cost element in a lot of feeds, it seemed worth addressing and providing some references for DIY protein components.

The Pearson square is built for proteins, but along with the ability to twist it from a vegan like a horse, donkey or goat, or omnivores like ducks, pigs and chickens, over to dogs and cats, we can also use that square for other feed measures – any vitamin, calories, raw fiber. We can also move the unknowns around to X, A or C, as well, to find what percentages of a component like protein we do need, or what a total percent would end up as. Really, we can use it to help us any time we have two components with measurable qualities, but we’ll stick to feed for a while.

It can be a pretty handy tool if we choose to manipulate it. Or we can stick with downloading the app for a phone or plugging in numbers on a computer to just figure out a protein supplement for our bagged feeds, or mixing our own two-ingredient or series of mixed feeds from scratch.

Figuring out Feed – Creating healthy ratios for sustainable livestock Continuing in the saga of feeding our livestock from our own area – or just cutting some of the feed costs

You can’t live without food and water. If you store them, you can’t use them if someone puts a bullet in you and you bleed out, so you have to learn to use weapons and practice first aid. And you need a shelter to keep supplies in, away from rain, sun, and vermin of all shapes and leg-counts. These things are what the “Prepper” community often focuses on. And they’re right to do so. Food, water, guns, ammunition, medical supplies, and shelter are all essential. But there’s one thing that, while not completely ignored, is I believe sorely neglected among the Survivalist segment of the population. And that is morale. Maintaining your group’s morale in crisis will be vital to ensuring your survival.

History is replete with examples of armies that had the best equipment but nonetheless lost their wars. The Vietnam War is one of the best case studies. The United States Armed Forces totally outclassed their Vietnamese enemies. American weapons, aircraft, supply lines, and medical facilities were superior. But American morale was, by war’s end, non-existent. To this day veterans and their families are rightfully bitter about the mismanagement, corruption, and the political obfuscation that turned the most powerful military on earth into a hogtied police force.

Now when—not if—the organic material strikes the ventilator, we as preppers will likely not be engaged in a large-scale war with multiple campaigns and the associated logistical requirements, chains of command, and so on. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it is very unlikely. We will, however, probably find ourselves in some kind of defensive armed conflict against elements of chaos and disorder from time to time. Whether they be an actual invading army, an organized and disciplined (to varying degrees) gang who have decided that what’s yours is theirs, or just a mob of desperate citizens who, having failed to prepare, have decided to liberate “their fair share” from you.

But even if none of us ever draw a blade or fire a gun in anger, after something collapses (and it will, sooner or later), life will become much harder. The old pressures of getting reports submitted on time or making it to that meeting will pale in comparison with the possibility that, if your garden fails, you and your family may starve. That is just one out of the scores of possibilities plaguing the future of a post-collapse society.

Amid this grim backdrop we find the subject of morale. Morale, for those few unfamiliar with the term, is the state of the spirits and confidence of a group and its willingness to perform its tasks. So if your morale is high, your people in your group will be more likely to perform their tasks cheerfully and to bolster one another’s spirits. If it is low, they will perform their duties grudgingly if at all, and will either actively or passively drag each other down.

Why is maintaining morale in crisis important to your group?

This is poison for any post-collapse situation. You need your people with their heads in the game, pulling together and doing everything they can to ensure their own and other’s survival. This is what, from my experience, is neglected in the preparedness community: means of maintaining morale. Ways to keep all the days from blending together into a depressing fog. Some people toss in the token “non-electric entertainments like cards or board games” and leave it at that, but I believe there is more to it.

Now before I go any further, let me address what I believe will be the greatest objection to this idea of making morale a priority. People will likely say “But, it’s going to be a constant grind! There’s no time for fun and games! Everything you do, every waking minute, must produce or preserve a survival essential!” To which I respectfully reply: Make time.

Again, I draw on history. Throughout the past 6,000 years of human existence on this planet, up until the last eighty or hundred years, the large majority of humanity has had to struggle for its survival. Food was unpredictable, politics and war were largely out of their control, and clean water was doubtful. Yet they still created beautiful things, sang songs, played instruments, danced together, and gathered to listen to the village storyteller or wandering troubadour weave tales of fantasy, history, and heroism. Why? Because they understood the importance of morale. They needed these things—in their proper place as supplements to work—to fortify their spirits for the hard labor and suffering in the days ahead.

So, with that background, I have two broad categories of morale-boosters that I think will become far more important post-collapse than they are now. These are: Music and Storytelling.

Music:

Music is everywhere around us today. It’s actually really hard to get away from it. Most of us have some kind of radio playing at work, whether we want it or not. There is music piped in to the gas station, the grocery store, the insurance agent, wherever you go it’s there. And most people walk around with earbuds crammed into their ears, listening to music off iPod and MP3 players.

I’m not against having music readily available. As someone who has no skill in playing it but still enjoys a good tune, I like having easy access to music. But something to bear in mind is that all these forms of easily accessible music rely on electricity to function properly. And post-collapse, electricity will likely (not certainly, but likely) be in very short supply. If you can get it at all. So musical-playback devices won’t be a high priority in that situation. This is where my recommendation comes in: Learn to actually play music.

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I’m not saying everyone should do this. Not everyone has the time, the money for instruments and lessons, and more importantly not everyone has the desire and innate skill needed to play an instrument. I am an example of this. I can keep a pretty good rhythm on a Celtic drum, and go along that way with someone else, but outside of that, I can’t play. I’ve tried at various points in my life to play guitar and recorder, and never made the time to stick to either of them. My sister, on the other hand, is a natural with anything stringed. She can play fiddle and guitar, and is learning banjo, mandolin, and ukulele. So she is an asset to us that way. We may not be able to play, but she can, and that will help to lift our spirits.

Another suggestion would be to try to learn to sing. I don’t mean take voice lessons or opera classes per se. I mean try to do something besides wail out the words to your favorite song like a dying cat. It helps if you have sheet music to learn the words from. Even if you can’t read music, you can follow the notes up and down to see where your voice should go, and you can use the spaces between notes to gauge how long to hold a note as you sing. It won’t be perfect, but hopefully it will prevent people running away with their hands over their ears.
There is one more thing I have to say on the subject of music: learn to like music that can be made without electricity. Most music today relies on electricity. Pop, rock, hip-hop, rap, country, blues, jazz, everything. Once there is no more juice to power electric instruments, amplifiers, and microphones, people will be left with nothing but the instruments available about a hundred years ago. This means we’ll be back to things like classical, bluegrass, folk (which includes ethnic music from Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America), some forms of jazz, and similar genres. I’m not saying you have to like all of these. Personally, I like Celtic, classical, and bluegrass music, but am not a big fan of Asian folk music. Whatever your preferences, try to learn one of the instruments associated with your choice or to surround yourself with people who play what you like. This may sound like I’m making a big deal out of nothing, but I’m serious. I’m not that old and I’ve already known plenty of people who would be lost during their workday if they didn’t have their heavy metal, rock, modern country, or pop music blasting away from a speaker plugged into the grid. Music, especially aggressive, highly electronic forms, can be addictive. And once it’s gone these people are going to be looking for it or a replacement the same way they would look for a physical drug. So break yourself of the addiction before it’s too late. I’m not saying never listen to a rock or country song again. I happen to like several songs from those genres and listen to them often. But I won’t go into musical withdrawals if tomorrow I could never hear them again.

Storytelling:

So, those were my thoughts on music. What about storytelling? You’re probably thinking, “Why did he even include this? Stories aren’t essential to survival.” That’s true, they’re not. But they are important to morale. Think about it: how satisfying is it to come home from your job or whatever you do all day and sit down to a good book or your favorite television show? Pretty enjoyable, right? There you go. That’s why I bring it up. Reading or watching a good story helps pull you out of whatever rut you managed to dig for yourself that day, and transports you to another world where, if things go wrong, they get put right. Or at least, they go wrong for someone else.

storytelling

One of the most popular people in villages and cities of any size was the minstrel, bard, or troubadour.

Once more, I will reference history. While there is dispute about just how dark the so-called “Dark Ages” really were, and the popular image of the medieval era as a miserable time to be alive is exaggerated, there is no doubt that it was orders of magnitude harder than our own. During this time, one of the most popular people in villages and cities of any size was the minstrel, bard, or troubadour. These men—and they were nearly always men, but that isn’t a stereotype that needs to carry over—were sometimes locals, sometimes wanderers. They brought news from afar, and told stories of the past exploits of people both from the countryside and from distant lands. Crowds would gather to hear them speak, and even if they were looked down upon officially, they were highly admired in general society.

Why? Because they helped lighten people’s loads after or during a hard day in a hard life. One reason fantastical adventures of knights and heroes were so popular was because, in a world often out of the control of the average peasant, hearing a story about a man who kills a monster, saves a town, and gets to marry the beautiful woman reminds them that there is hope in the world, that justice still exists, and that true love is still possible. These things helped them relate to their world and allowed them to bear the trials they encountered more easily.

So how does this apply to preppers? Two ways. First, if you have a natural storyteller in your group, don’t belittle them for their gift. Good stories don’t just appear out of the air: it takes a lot of mental energy and creativity to make up a compelling story. The most obvious way a storyteller like this can be a benefit is to calm restless, frightened children. If you’ve had to bug out or evacuate, and couldn’t take your home library with you, then having someone in your group who has the skill to make up stories will go a long way towards keeping children calm.

Second, depending on how long any post-collapse situation lasts, having an oral/written method of transmitting will help people connect with the past, with the pre-collapse world. Even though these methods are notorious for allowing inaccuracies to creep in quickly, they still allow a level of continuity with those who came before.

For anyone reading this who fancies themselves a storyteller, I have one word for you: paper. In a post-collapse world, with electricity scarce or non-existent, paper will be your best friend. But in our digital age, we don’t want to deal with something as time-consuming and laborious to compose as a longhand manuscript. I have been an editor and columnist for an online magazine, and I know firsthand how much easier it is to write on a computer than on paper. But I can do it, if necessary. If you’re wanting to write a longer work, don’t try to do it all at once. Write chapters or scenes one at a time, and share them that way. In this manner, you’ll save your hands, and your audience will be kept in suspense about what happens next. This will give them something enjoyable to think about as they go about their days. And if you don’t end up writing anything down for your group or if you’re not the best storyteller in the group, don’t worry. All those dollar-store tablets or bundles of lined filler paper you stocked up on have a baker’s dozen other uses!

Also, before I close, I just want to return to my earlier brief mention of art. Art has been, for most of human history, a fairly exclusive domain, inhabited by a very few people. But that doesn’t mean their products were reserved for only the very wealthy. The Hollywood image of the bare peasant hovel with nothing in it to liven the gaze is not correct. Especially in highly developed societies like those of the Celts and the Dark-Age Norse, art imbued even everyday, mundane objects with a sense of power and purpose beyond their original intent, which must surely have helped their owners weather their tough existence. So while I have mainly focused on music and storytelling here, much of what I have said can apply to carving, sculpting, painting, or other arts.

Conclusion:

None of what I have said should be taken to mean that morale-boosters should take primacy over things like canned food, weapons and ammunition, water, and medical supplies. Nor do I condone people who are artists and musicians and storytellers ignoring other elements of preparedness. Everyone should prepare the essentials to whatever degree their circumstances allow. These supplementals are nonetheless an important aspect to consider as you make your preparations. And if you can think of something else I haven’t listed that would fit your group, please, do that instead! This article was by no means meant to be exhaustive or to be a checklist. Just to get your wheels turning.. Godspeed to you and yours.


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If you are working in the center of a large city, like London or New York, or are working in the emerging markets, where bomb scares are not unusual, it is possible that you may get caught up in an Improvised Explosive Device incident. Whether your venue, office or residence is targeted directly or it just happens to be on the same street as an IED, you will need to know how to react. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are a threat to everyone and are used frequently and with great affect by criminals, cranks and terrorists the world over. If you follow international events, then you will see that there is a lethal bombing somewhere in the world almost every day.

The basic IED can be made from commercially available materials that are sold over the counter in most places. Information on how to construct IEDs is available from military or survival bookstores, the Internet and former military personnel. The size of an IED can range from as small as a cigarette packet to as large as a large container lorry. IEDs can be disguised as virtually anything; this gives the bomber the advantage of being able to kill their targets without alerting them to the threat, giving the bomber a large degree of anonymity. IEDs can be used to kill selected targets or to kill indiscriminately. These facts are why the IED is often the favored weapon of criminal, cranks and terrorists the world over and is the most dangerous threat to security, law enforcement, military and the general public.

Here I have listed some basic information and some basic guidelines for dealing with an IED incident and in part 3 I will dissect a law enforcement response you a recent incident in NYC, after reading this you should be a lot more competent than those members of the NYPD who were running that circus!

Bomb and Improvised Explosive Device Identification

Bombs and IED’s can be disguised as virtually anything. You need to be suspicions of any objects, cars or activity in or around your locations. An unattended bag, an unknown car that has been parked next to your building to long, unknown people acting nervously… You and your employees must be aware and suspicious; everyone also needs to be trained on how to deal with a suspicious object or in the worst case scenario the aftermath of a bomb/IED incident!

The Secondary Device

Bomb Royal Avenue

A bomb explodes in a stationary shop in Royal Avenue,Belfast

The IED can be used on its own or in conjunction with other IEDs or weapons. Good bombers will always place a second device near the first device, in a likely control point for security forces or on an evacuation route from the area of the first device. The second device is to catch the personnel or emergency services coming to the aid of anyone hurt in the first blast, or security forces dealing with the incident or personnel escaping from the first blast. Sometimes the first device is designed to go off for no other reason than to draw in emergency or security services or drive people into the larger main device. You must always consider if an explosive device has been found, gone off or that there could be a second or third device somewhere.

Here are some basic examples of how IEDs would be employed by Irish terrorists; these are taken from when I was a teenager serving in the British Army in Northern Ireland in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s.

  • A man is murdered in the shoe shop that he runs, he was shot at close quarters. The murders left behind an explosive device in a shoe box set to detonate 30 minutes after the shooting, by which time security forces and emergency services were in the immediate area. Think about how many shoe boxes there are in a shoe shop! The device detonated but no-one else was hurt due to the fact that secondary devices were expected to be left at crime scenes.
  • A car bomb is detonated in a small village and wounds several people. The security forces and emergency services are limited to number of routes that they can use to get to the village. It would be expected for an IED to be placed along one of the routes into the village to catch the security forces entering or leaving the area. If time was available the routes would need to be searched and cleared, if time and helicopters were not available this would consist of the responding patrol in driving in at top speed.
  • A car is parked a short distance from a security force base with what appears to be mortar tubes inside. A security force cordon is placed around the car to secure the area and. When the security force teams are conducting their clearance searches around their cordon points, a team finds an IED attached to a trip wire. Further searches of the cordon positions turn up other IED’s. The mortar tube in the car turned out to be a piece of drain pipe, it was a hoax that was used to draw security forces into the IED’s that the terrorists placed in likely security force cordon positions.
  • A car is parked on the side of a country lane in an area regularly patrolled by security forces. When a security force patrol spots the car, they check with their control room to see if the car is registered as stolen. It’s not. The patrols have been on the ground for four days and are rushing to make it to their pick up point on time. The patrol can see nothing suspicious with the car, so they send two members of the patrol forward to check out the car. One of the team who goes forward to check the car is carrying electronic counter-measure equipment that can identify and block radio signal for remote-controlled bombs. The bomb was not remote-controlled or in the car. It was in a ditch a few meters from the car and detonated with a command wire.

You should take nothing at face value and always remember the secondary device. Always be suspicious of anything that looks out-of-place, if you are in an area where there is an active IED threat you need to draw up pans and procedure of how you will respond if you are caught up in an incident.

Types of device

Letter & parcel bomb

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Damage from a letter bomb.

The letter and parcel bomb is the most widely used of all IEDs. The bombers who use this type of device range from stalkers through to hard-core terrorists. The letter bomb gives the bomber a direct line of access to the target and affords the bomber virtual anonymity for themselves, as the device can be sent from anywhere in the world. As the name suggests, the device is placed into an envelope or parcel and posted to the target. Upon opening the device explodes.

Defense against letter and parcel bombs

Below is a list of things that should be checked for on any package that you suspect as being an IED. If you or your client is under a threat, all mail should be checked. If some of the following criteria are evident on a suspect package, it should be put through an x-ray machine to confirm or ally your suspicions. If you don’t have an x-ray machine, then the suspect package should be placed in a safe area and specialist assistance sought. The package would have been knocked around whilst in the postal system, so it will be safe to move-just don’t open it.

Letter and parcel bomb recognition check list:

  • Were you expecting the letter or package?
  • Was it delivered by hand (to avoid the postal system)?
  • Is it uneven or lopsided?
  • Is the envelope rigid?
  • Is there excessive securing material such as cello-tape, string, etc.?
  • Are there any visual distractions on the envelope such as company, official stamps?
  • Are there any protruding wires or tin foil?
  • Was there excessive postage paid?
  • Was the address poorly written/typed?
  • Any excessive weight?
  • No return address?
  • Any oil stains, discoloration, fingerprints?
  • Any incorrect titles?
  • Any titles but no names?
  • Any misspellings of common words?
  • Any restrictive markings such as Confidential or Private?
  • Any suspicious postmarks such as Belfast or Baghdad, etc.?
  • Is the address stenciled?
  • Any holes or pinpricks, which could be to let out explosive fumes?
  • Any smell of almonds, marzipan or perfume used to mask the smell of explosive fumes?
  • Any mechanical sounds?

Incendiary devices

A simple form of this device can be made as small as a cigarette packet and be made from condoms and commercially available chemicals. When properly ignited, they will burn at high temperatures and are primarily designed to destroy property. Incendiaries require an initiator (flame or chemical action), delay mechanism, igniter and main incendiary charge. Incendiary bombs are usually used against shops and businesses. They can easily be placed between the cushions of furniture or among flammable objects, in the case of thermite, on or above machinery or vehicles, and timed to go off when the business is empty of staff, causing the maximum fire damage. This can also help to give the bomber anonymity.

Defense against incendiary devices If either your client or his business is under the threat of incendiary attack, the following precautions should be taken. A deterrent would be to install overt CCTV and employ high-profile 24-hour security guards. The CCTV could, in the event of an incident, be used to identify the bomber. Keep videos in a fireproof container. If the client’s workplace is an office suite, then access needs to be restricted as much as possible. Visitors should not be left unsupervised. Cameras should be placed in high-risk areas entrances/exits and outside toilets. All personnel entering the suite should be searched.

Blast bombs

This device can be made very small. A device can easily be placed in a take away food container or bag and placed in a bin or pile of rubbish. In the UK, Irish terrorists have been known to put and detonate IEDs inside of bicycle frames. This type of device is used to cause disruption and confusion. In the city of London, UK, in the early 90s, a spate of such devices placed in rubbish bins resulted in all bins being removed from the streets and the London Underground. These devices can cause great disruption and kill indiscriminately.

Defense against blast bombs Realistically, there is very little that can be done to stop a bomber planting these devices in city areas. The device can be easily disguised and moved during rush hour. It would be impossible to watch everyone, let alone search them. Security cameras on buildings and in shops would be useful when trying to identify the bomber after the device has detonated. If your client is attending a function where there is a threat from IEDs, precautions need to be taken. The empty venue should be searched by experienced personnel with, if possible, sniffer dogs. After the search, strict access control needs to be put in place with every entrance/exit covered and everyone entering the venue searched. Special attention should be paid to casual staff hired just for that function.

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Photo by courtesy of C-52 of 3/2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team
see: http://www.army.mil/-news/2008/06/06/9708-general-lee-rides-again/

Undercar Booby-trap (UVB)

This device is a favorite weapon of Irish terrorist’s groups. The device is placed in a container such as an empty video case or a Tupperware container and attached to the vehicle using magnets. The usual method for triggering the device is by using a tilt or vibration sensitive switch. The UVB enables the terrorists to attack selective targets. There is a risk of discovery involved when placing this device as access to the targets vehicle is needed. If the bomber manages to plant the device, it will kill and maim the occupants of the car if it is not discovered.

Defense against UVB The best defense against the UVB is to deny the bomber access to the vehicle. If the vehicle is secured in a garage, the entrance and driveway to the garage need to be physically checked before the vehicle is moved. There could be a device attached to the door of the garage or a mine in the driveway. If the vehicle has to be left unattended, then on return the vehicle and the surrounding area needs to be searched. Searching a vehicle for IEDs is an important skill and needs to be practiced regularly.

Car and lorry bombs

Car and lorry bombs enable the terrorist to conceal and move large devices. The car bomb can be used against individual or indiscriminate area targets. The use of the car bomb is very common and over the past few years, this type of device has been used in London, New York and Paris. All it takes is for someone to drive the vehicle to the target and leave it to explode. Against an individual this device could be placed along a route or near an entrance to a building that is frequented by the target. The device can be triggered by remote control, command wire or, if the target is setting a pattern, by a timer. A method of delivering a device to a high security area is to use a suicide bomber or force someone to drive the vehicle with the device in it. The latter is a common tactic of Irish terrorists. It starts with the intended driver being kidnapped or having his home taken over. The driver is then informed that if they don’t drive to the device or to the target they and their family will be killed. If they drive the device, at least he has a chance of survival. The driver is then chained and locked into the vehicle with the device and he is told how long they have got to get to the target before the device explodes. The driver has little choice but to drive the device to the target and hope the security personnel has some bolt cutter on hand with which to cut him out of the car, before the device explodes.

carbomb

The car bomb can be used against individual or indiscriminate area targets.

Improvised mines

These devices can vary in size and be disguised as virtually as anything. Their triggering methods are only limited to the imagination and ability of the bomber. In Northern Ireland, large devices are usually placed in rural areas in culvert, under roads, or perhaps disguised as milk churns or in bales of hay. In urban areas, they can be placed in lampposts, rubbish bins or in vertical drain piping on the side of a building. To place a bomb into a drainpipe, the terrorist lowers the device into the drainpipe from the top and a command wire detonates the device. The command wire can go over the building or be laid in the guttering connected to a firing point out of the line of sight of the killing zone. In all such operations in Northern Ireland, the terrorists use youths as watchers. The child playing at the end of the street shouting to his friends could be telling the bomber you are in the kill zone.

Sleeper bombs

An IED can be placed in a position a month before it explodes. If it is known that at a certain time in the future you or your client will be attending an event, a function or staying in a hotel at a certain time, precautions need to be taken. In 1984 in Brighton, England, such a device killed five people in an IRA attempt to kill the then British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher.

Defense against car bombs & mines

To beat the area car bomber, one has to vigilant and suspicious. If a vehicle looks suspicious, then get it checked out. Security forces have an advantage over private security personnel in being able to check out the background (whether it is stolen or rented) of a vehicle very quickly. So, if you are suspicious of a vehicle, call the authorities and let them check it out; if you are unwilling or unable to contact the authorities, then just avoid the vehicle. For private security personnel: when the car bomb or mine threat is directed at your client, then precautions need to be taken. If there are limited routes in and out of the client’s residence or office, then these routes need to be regularly physically checked. Any suspicious cars, recent digging or wires leading away from the road need to be checked out. When the client is traveling to and from work, the routes must be varied as much as possible. All trips should be kept secret until the last-minute and then be preceded by an advanced security team, which needs to arrive at the client destination with enough time to check out the area before the client arrives. When entering or exiting a building, different entrances/exits need to be used. If possible, use fire escapes and staff entrances. If the client is to stay in a hotel their room will need to be searched along with the adjoining rooms, if possible, and a check kept on anyone using the rooms. If the rooms are booked a while in advance, a check will need to be done on all building work and maintenance carried out in between the time of booking and the time of stay, as this work may have been used to cover the planting of a device.

HOW TO DEAL WITH AN IED INCIDENT

POLICE OR SECURITY FORCES SHOULD BE INFORMED AS SOON AS AN IED IS FOUND OR IF YOU HAVE GOOD REASON FOR EXPECTING AN OBJECT OR VEHICLE OF BEING AN IED. DISPOSAL AND DIFFUSION OF IEDS IS TO BE LEFT TO TRAINED PROFESSIONALS. DO NOT ATTEMPT THIS YOURSELF.

Everyone should know the basics for dealing with an IED incident. If you have a business in an area where there could possibly be and IED threat you will need to draw contingency plans for an IED incident. If you are traveling to a city where IED incidents occur, you need to know how things can develop and whether security forces know what they are doing or putting you and others at risk.

There are four steps when dealing with an IED:

  • Confirmation: Confirm, to the best of your ability, whether the object/vehicle is an IED, taking into account the following considerations: Are you under a threat from IEDs? Are the objects seemingly out-of-place? Are you in an area where terrorists are operational? Is there a funny smell around the object such as almonds, marzipan or petrol? This is where your threat assessment comes in. An unattended bag in an airport will arouse more suspicion then an unattended bag in a bar or restaurant but both could be just as dangerous or just as harmless. If all unattended bags in bars or other public places were reported as IEDs, there would be hundreds of false incidents every day but one just might be an IED. If you have good reason to suspect an object or vehicle, then check it. The police and security forces should be willing to help you, if you give them good reasons for your suspicions.
  • Cordon: Once a device has been confirmed, the area around it and roads leading to it needs to be cordoned off so no-one can access. It depends on the size and location of the device, as to how far away the cordon will be but a basic rule is that you should be out of line of sight of the device. This is because if you can see the device you can be hit by shrapnel or debris if it detonates. In the private security world, cordon preparations and duties would fall on the static/residential security teams etc. If an IED turns up at your residence, the RST, if you have security personnel, would have to deal with the initial cordon and clearing of the area. Cordon equipment needs to be on hand, such as cordon tape, torches, and maps of the area and communications equipment. Plans need to be made for the evacuation procedures and cordon points for the different types of device. All cordon and control point location need to be physically searched for booby traps before being set up, the basic search would be 10 meters around the position.
  • Clearing the area: People should be moved out of the blast area of the device; the blast area depends on the size and location of the device. In some cases, depending on the size of the device, it may be safer to leave people in buildings and under cover, rather than moving them into the open. It would make sense to assign a location in your building that could be used for this purpose, and internal room with no windows would be ideal. When evacuating people, a route should be taken that is out of line of sight of the device; if the device explodes when evacuating personnel, flying and falling glass is a big danger and needs to be considered when planning the evacuation route, as is the threat of secondary devices.
  • Controlling the incident: Control of all IED incidents should be handed over to authorities, as soon as possible. You need to brief the responding personnel as to where the device is, when it arrived, how it arrived, where your cordon positions are, whether there is anyone still within the cordoned area and where they are. You also need to pass on any relevant information of threats that have been made or suspicious incidents or people who have been in the area. Not only is this professional, but it could help apprehend the terrorists.

When a threat assessment reveals a threat from IEDs, a great deal of planning is needed. Whether you are a business owner, lone international traveler or a close protection team member, procedures need to be made for dealing with IEDs. Everyone in law enforcement, homeland security and the private security industry must have a basic knowledge of how IEDs work and the effects of an explosion but they don’t. These days basic search techniques and IED recognition is a necessity for all everyone, as IEDs are the most widely used terrorist weapon and will be for a long time to come.

TIMES SQUARE CAR BOMB, NEW YORK CITY, MAY 1ST 2010

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After reading what has already been written in this article you should be able to pick out quite a few mistakes in the New York Police Department (NYPD) handling of the 2010 car bomb incident in Times Square in the City of New York.

The vehicle that contained the explosives was a dark blue 1993 Nissan Pathfinder sport utility vehicle with dark tinted windows, it had been parked on a busy tourist-crowded street. People in the area noticed smoke drifting from vents near the back seat of the unoccupied vehicle, which was parked with its engine running and its hazard lights on. They also heard firecrackers going off inside.

A police officer approached the car and observed the smoke, canisters inside, and the smell of gunpowder. The vehicle was set ablaze, but did not detonate. Upon arrival, the bomb disposal team used a remote-controlled robotic device to break out a window of the vehicle, and explore its contents. The device’s ignition source malfunctioned and failed to detonate the main explosives. Had it detonated NYPD officials said the bomb would have cut the car in half, and “would have caused casualties, a significant fireball and would have sprayed shrapnel, and killed or wounded many people.

OK, the U.S. had been engaged in the war on terror for 9 years, so do the NYPD and other agencies not know how to deal properly with a car bomb incident? It amazed me when I saw the incident on the TV; they showed the bomb squad defusing the device with crowds nearby watching. Basic rule, you and your cordon positions must be out of line of site of the device, if you can see the device you can be hit by shrapnel etc. If the device had detonated there would have been many un-necessary casualties from the stupid cordon positions alone. The car bomb was described as a crude device, so was it not taken seriously? My first thought if I came across a crude and amateur explosive device would be, where is the real one, and that the crude device was nothing but bait to draw security forces into a trap. I strongly doubt the area and cordon positions were checked for secondary devices. In the TV coverage you could see that roads at either end of the road where the device was located were still open and cops were milling and sitting around relaxing, a suicide bomber could have driven right through the cordon and blown up the bomb squad, you can’t protect others if you can protect yourself! The NYPD’s handling of this incident can be classed as very negligent and how you should not deal with an IED incident!

If you are in an urban area and there is a car bomb incident you should initially find cover, get into a building and away from windows. If a device goes off the shock wave can break windows for few blocks around it. You don’t want to be on an open city street will glass falling on you from 50 stories up. When safe to evacuate the area use back allies and non-obvious routes and do not hang around to watch how things develop. This is because of the threat from secondary devices and because the first device may only be there to draw in crowds of onlookers or channel people into the main device.

If you are working in the center of a large city, like London or New York, or are working in the emerging markets, where bomb scares are not unusual, it

 

Once you have selected and purchased a handgun you then need to learn how to shoot it accurately. If you have never used a handgun before, go and get some training in defensive shooting techniques. Some people, usually men, who have limited firearms experience but believe they, know everything about firearms will not undergo training. This is an ego problem and a sign of insecurity, which can end with innocent people getting hurt. Many people do not realize that the handgun techniques you see on the TV and at the movies do not work in the real world. You cannot learn how to use firearms by reading a manual or sitting down watching DVD’s or videos on YouTube, you have to go and practice. Many former and serving law enforcement and military personnel continuously seek and undergo further firearms training, because they are professional enough to know they can always learn something new and improve their skills. Firearms skills must be learned properly and then regularly practiced.

There are just as many people in the firearms training business that claim that their system is the best, just as there are self-proclaimed experts in the world of the martial arts or other fields. You can argue tactics all day and you will still get nowhere. You must find a system that works for you and learn it from an instructor who has both a good reputation and verifiable real world experience. The best systems are simple and not overly technical. If you are ever unfortunate enough to have to use your handgun in self-defense you want to be concerned about getting rounds into the bad guy, not having to thinking if you grip is correct and if your feet are in the right place.

There are many people confusing competition shooting techniques that are developed for sports and hobbies as realistic tactical training. Big difference number one, on the streets the bad guys don’t care about the rules and will be shooting back. I have had students come through my courses that have been taught and trust techniques that look cool and work in an air-conditioned shooting range with no stress but have completely no relevance in the real world. On the street, fancy techniques that overly stress safety will get you killed and hopefully only you and not those you’re possibly protecting.

You need to realistically think about how you would handle being in a hostile situation, not on a comfortable shooting range, but being attacked by criminals in some dark parking lot or your home in the early hours of the morning when there will be no one to help you. The police, if you’re lucky, maybe, there in 15 minutes if you are able to contact them; think about what the criminals can do to you and your family in those 15 minutes. Visualize this situation and determine how you would genuinely feel and determine how you would react in the seconds you may be lucky to have to reverse the situation on the criminals. There was a saying I picked up in South Africa in 94 and agree with to this day “The police are just there to pick up the bodies”. Most police like to tell you they are your protectors but the reality is, if you’re involved in a hostile situation they will not be rushing into save you, they will be thinking about their own skin. They are happy to do the after incident paperwork and to arrest you, if you live, if it means brownie points for them or, in a lot of places, an opportunity to extort money from you.

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Firearms skills must be learned properly and then regularly practiced.

The Fundamentals of Defensive Shooting

The subjects that should be included in your tactical training are defensive shooting both left and right-handed, drawing from concealed carry, using different fire positions and use of cover. If you are going to work with or carry a firearm, you should undertake stress scenario training. This should include dry and live fire contact drills, in different environments, i.e. in a vehicle, in a street, in a restaurant and so forth. Proper training, handgun maintenance, carry technique/firearm access, aiming, grip/trigger pull and shot placement are the basic factors in defensive shooting.

  • Training/firearms competence: You must be able to use your weapons safely and competently before you consider using it for defensive purposes. If you do not know how to use your weapon properly you are more of a danger to yourself and your love ones than the bad guys. Take the time to learn your weapon and how to use it!
  • Handgun maintenance: Your handgun needs to be functional and in a good clean condition. You should have good ammunition that is in a good condition. Modern ammunition can function reliably for several years being regularly carried as long as it does not get excessively damp. But I tell my students to change their carry ammo for new rounds every six months or so, just to minimize the risks of a misfire. You need to keep your handgun clean, oiled and check it regularly. If your handgun or ammunition does not work, then everything else is a waste of time.
  • Carry technique/firearm access: You need to be able to get to your handgun when you need it. You may have the cleanest $1500.00 .45 caliber handgun and be an excellent shot but this is no good if you cannot get to your handgun when you need it. I have dealt with several clients who have had handguns close to them during incidents but were unable to get to them. You must be able to get to and deploy your weapons weak and strong handed, if you can’t, again everything else is a waste of time!
  • Grip: You must have a good grip on the weapon, as I have said before, having a good grip is one of the fundamentals of pistol shooting. This is where you must practice drawing your weapon and instinctively getting the right grip, the only way to you can achieve this is by repeatedly drawing and holstering your weapon; dry training. Please ensure your weapon is unloaded before you practice any dry drills.
  • Aim: Once the weapon is deployed you need to stabilize and get it on target as quickly as possible. The chances are in a hostile situation you won’t be able to get into a formal shooting stance but you still need to deliver accurate fire on your target whatever position you are in. These three aiming techniques all have a place in tactical shooting.
  • Slow, aimed fire. This is the most accurate and is where you apply the marksmanship principles. It involves getting a steady, properly aligned sight picture and slowly squeezing accurate shots. It is normally used for shots over 20 yards/meter or when you need precise accuracy. In tactical situations you should be behind cover or in a prone position when taking slow aimed shots, support the handgun where possible. With this technique you should be able to deliver accurate shots out to 100 + yards/meters with practice.
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If you do not know how to use your weapon properly you are more of a danger to yourself and your love ones than the bad guys.

  • Rapid aimed fire. For this technique you look down the top of the handgun and get a quick sight picture and shoot. This can be used against targets out to 20 yards/meters or further with practice, it’s accurate and fast. As I have previously stated whenever I use the sights I close the opposite eye to the hand the pistol is in, the same applies with this technique. Again in a tactical situation it would be best to use this technique from behind cover.
  • Instinctive fire. This technique is can be used out to 10 yards/meter or more where there is no time to use the weapons sights. Forget about the sights, focuses on the target and point the handgun directly where you want the bullets to go and squeeze the trigger. This technique is simple and fast but needs practice, will talk about it more in the next chapter. At distances up to 10 yards/meters you want to be able to fire five quick shots accurately into a person, forget double tapping. At distances up to 5 yards/meters with say a 9mm handgun, most people should be able to rapid fire multiple rounds accurately into a target with a little practice using proper techniques. It all depends on them having a good grip on the weapon and a good trigger pull.
  • Trigger Pull: You should practice pulling the trigger on your handgun until you can do so smoothly. One trick (make sure your handgun is unloaded) is to balance an empty bullet case on the top of your handgun, near the front sight and practice dry firing, the aim is you to keep the case there for as many trigger pulls as possible. If that is too easy try a coin balanced on your front sight.  You want to fire a minimum of five quick shots into a person when in hostile situations at close quarters. You should keep putting rounds into the criminal or terrorist until they no longer pose a threat.
  • Shot Placement:  In a hostile shooting incident, the criminal or terrorist must be incapacitated immediately, a wounded the criminal or terrorist can still be very dangerous. Shot placement is everything and takes priority over caliber. A shot to the brain with a .22 will drop someone where as a .45 hollow point to the stomach may kill someone in the long run but short-term the bad guy you just shot can still fight and shoot you. You need to train as you intend to fight, that’s old knowledge but it makes me laugh on most gun ranges to see people, civilians and law enforcement shooting center of mass on silhouette targets. What vital organs or bones are at your center of mass? None! The only reason I see for people being told to shoot center of mass is so they can pass qualifications with minimum effort and training. You need to be training to hit vital organs or bones, if not then you are going to be surprised when the bad guy you have just shot keeps shooting back at you.
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You need to be training to hit vital organs or bones, if not then you are going to be surprised when the bad guy you have just shot keeps shooting back at you.

  • The best shot placement that guarantees nearly 100% immediate incapacitation of the target is to the brain. Shots should be below the middle of the forehead, and above the upper lip or to the side of the head above the center of ear from the cheekbones back. I have heard many people say the head is too small of a target area; well it is if you’re trying to get poorly trained personnel to pass security or law enforcement shooting qualifications. But for people who want to take the time and train properly head shots can be achieved instinctively at close quarters in a short period of time. One thing that annoys me with society in general is that these days all standards are being set to the lowest level, just because one person is incompetent it does not mean everyone is, but we can’t hurt the feelings of the incompetent ones can we… I live in a different world and understand that as far as violent situations are concerned you need to be at the highest standard and end the situation as quickly as possible. Five rapid rounds from a trained shooter towards the head of a bad guy at conversational range will end the conversation very quickly. Also, these days with body armor being freely available and the fact the criminals or terrorists may be on narcotics head-shots should be your first target area of choice.
  • The center of the upper chest, just below the neck is also a good target area. Shots that hit the lungs can be fatal but may take time to drop a target, shots the heart will kill a target instantly. I tell my students that aiming just below the neck ensures that if their shots are low or high they are still hitting vital areas on the target. Another reason for mixing my ammunition between HP’s and FMJ rounds is because I want penetration; if a bullet hits a target’s spine they are instantly paralyzed. As I’ve said shots to the lungs can be fatal but can take time to drop a target. During this time, the criminal or terrorist can still return effective fire, this is again why I tell people fire a minimum of five rounds and you need to be aggressive. If a criminal is returning fire the chances are their arms and weapon will be in front of their chest, so we need the multiple shots and ammunition that will penetrate to ensure hits on the vital areas. This area of the body may also be covered by heavy clothing, objects such as cell phones that may deflect or prevent a bullets penetration. Also, if the criminal is wearing a bullet-proof vest this can prevent rounds hitting the vital areas, be aggressive and keep shooting until the target is down. If shooting at moving targets or targets at distances over 10 yards/meters or if you know you cannot get the head shot, you should shoot for upper chest.
  • Shots to the stomach or lower can kill someone but are rarely effective in dropping a target immediately, this is again where I would say FMJ ammo could be effective for penetrating to the spine or breaking the pelvis.

Remember!

  • Speed and accuracy are your main concern. Get your weapon out and get multiple and accurate rounds into the target as quickly as possible
  • Always fully load your weapon; magazine to be fully loaded and put a round in the chamber where legal to do so. I am currently writing this in Nigeria and in one incident here recently, three police officers were killed in what we believe to be an attempted hit on someone they were escorting. They approached a car that was blocking the road and their client’s vehicle, as they got close a criminal opened up on them with an AK-47, all 3 died at the scene. They were carrying AK’s also but with the safety catches on and no rounds in the chambers, they did not stand a chance.
  • Always know what is beyond your target. A dead bystander means manslaughter if not murder charge.  Go for headshots at close quarters; otherwise go for the upper chest area/base of the neck.
  • In the US, the majority of police officers killed in shooting incidents are shot at conversational range, at distances of up to 10 feet. Over 50% are shot at distances under 5 feet. At these distances there is no need to use the weapons sights, be aggressive point and shoot!
  • Two out of every three police officers killed in the US are shot at night or in low-light areas. If you can point shoot these is no need to worry about night sights and lasers etc. as you are not using the sights anyway. We will talk later about the use of flashlights/torches.
  • The most common handgun calibers used against American police officers are 9-millimeter and .38. These two calibers accounted for 50 percent of the handgun deaths. In most places in the world you will find 9mm and .38 caliber weapons, they have been around for nearly 100 years and I expect will be around for a long time to come.
  • Shooting incidents are over in seconds, you will not have time to chamber a round, get into a range stance, check breathing and use the sights on your weapon.  You should keep a round in the chamber, have access to the handgun, be aggressive and get rounds into the targets vital areas of the target as quickly as possible.
  • Criminals or terrorists usually operate in gangs so, in time train for engaging multiple targets.
  • Terrorists and criminals like guns, they train in police and military techniques using manuals and videos that are freely available on the commercial market. It’s up to you to train harder and be at a more professional level than they are.
  • Always be aware of your environment, you want spot any potential problems and avoid them or at least be ready. If it gets to the point where the criminal has set you up and has a weapon on you, you’re going to have problems. Best to always try to avoid the problems and confrontations!

  Once you have selected and purchased a handgun you then need to learn how to shoot it accurately. If you have never used a handgun before, go and get some

To be truly prepared for any type of disaster requires a good bit more effort than simply reading blogs, watching videos and accumulating supplies although I don’t discount at all those methods or preparation. The background investigation you do doesn’t all have to correlate specifically to your plan and in my experience so much of what I have researched, while not something I proactively work on, I feel it gives me perspective and as such contributes in some way to my overall prepping efforts. But at some point it helps to put your emergency response plan down on paper. When you start looking at the different aspects that could affect your life, it helps to give this process a little more structure and that is what I want to discuss today.

Many people come to the Final Prepper after a crisis has hit the news. Some have been prompted by an inner urging that motivates them to research preparedness as a way to mitigate tragedy. The reasons for wanting to prepare are different for each person, but there are a lot of common situations we can find ourselves in that require action. Action is better with training and training is born out of a plan for success. What could an emergency response plan for your family look like and where would you start prepping?

Emergency Response Plan First Step

Conduct a risk assessment

If you don’t know where to start, I would suggest you sit down and write down the risks you feel could impact your family in some way. Many of the next steps will fall in line after you know what you are prepping for.

  • Hazard Identification – Do you live in a high-rise in a major metropolitan city or at the edge of a natural forest? Each of us has hazards that perhaps other people don’t need to worry about. What specific hazards could impact you directly where you live? Some common hazards you could be concerned about could be Fire, Hazardous spills from railroad or chemical plants nearby, Terrorism, pandemic, utility outages, cyber-attack. Write down any situation you feel you should be prepared for.
  • Vulnerability Assessment – Understanding the risks above, who or what could be at risk if one or more of those hazards actually happened to you. There are people usually, maybe your own property, the larger hazards will/could impact infrastructure and supply chains. Some hazards can pollute the environment to the point where moving either temporarily or permanently may be necessary.
  • Impact Analysis – Looking at the vulnerabilities above in light of the hazards, you start drilling into what prepping needs you should focus on. There could be injuries, property damage, loss of business income or other financial loss, environmental contamination or worse.

I find that it helps some people to write down specific lists for each of the items above because that should start directing your efforts. You can almost look at the impacts and work backwards. I know that injuries are very possible in almost any hazard I identified above so medical preparation is a given. I also know that some of the risks above highlight other security needs so I can begin planning for what we need to take care of before any emergency.

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Having your risk assessment done should help you build your own preparedness plan. In my case this illuminated needs for many areas:

The list above is large categories and each can be split into multiple sub-categories beneath those levels but it is a start. In many cases I was able to inventory the prepping supplies identified above that already existed in some capacity and use that to determine what was left to take care of/acquire/learn.

So that gets you to a point where you are thinking about a broad spectrum of things that could need addressing by you and what your plan of action may be. It is a start.

But then an actual emergency does happen.

Putting your emergency response plan into action

This could be after you have been prepping for years or before you have bought the first bag of beans or case of bottled water. Once the emergency has occurred, you have to put your emergency response plan into action. Hopefully you have considered the following areas below before you are forced to act.

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The minutes directly before or after a disaster will afford you with a few choices and the time you have to decide can vary greatly. For the immediate safety of your group, you are going to need to figure out quickly which path to safety you need to follow.

  • EvacuationGetting the heck out of dodge may be the best thing you can do but that is easier said than done because there are so many variables. What methods do you have for evacuation? Are you able to use vehicles or are you forced to walk? Which direction are you heading and do you have a destination that you have already planned? How long will the evacuation take and do you have the rest of the city to contend with? Many of us plan to bug out but that isn’t always the best or most appropriate thing to do in all situations.
  • Sheltering – Violent storms like tornadoes or hurricanes could force you to community shelters. Do you know where these are located in your city? Do you have go bags prepared and are ready to go in a moment’s notice to make it to the shelter? Do you have family members that may be on another side of town and will need to meet you at the shelter?
  • Shelter-In-Place – In a widespread pandemic, it may be necessary to shelter in place and avoid contact with contagious individuals until the virus has run it’s course. Do you have the supplies to lock your home down and prevent contamination? Do you have the tools needed to make your own quarantine room if someone comes down with the infection? Do you have enough food and water to last the duration of the quarantine assuming that many utilities could go down as they are run by humans too who get sick or refuse to leave their homes.
  • Lockdown – Temporarily you may need to barricade yourself as in the case of an active shooter. I usually don’t recommend this approach unless you have the means to really secure the room you are in, but if you can prevent entry and need to wait out a violent situation, that may be called for. If you have no locks or no really good way to prevent someone intent on doing harm from entering, I prefer either Fight or Flight approaches as opposed to sitting and waiting to be shot, but each person must identify their own risk tolerance with the situation.

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What to do after the emergency has passed

In most disaster situations, there is a period when the disaster or crisis has passed. Storm waters recede, the wind stops blowing, the earth calms and the shooting stops. This is when your emergency response plan actually focuses on a different aspect of survival, but the entire process could repeat over and over again if circumstances change or the emergency event is protracted. Later, rinse, repeat.

  • Check on people and assess damage – Do you have everyone accounted for and are there any injuries? Triage the most critical injuries:
    • Those who are likely to live, regardless of what care they receive;
    • Those who are likely to die, regardless of what care they receive;
    • Those for whom immediate care might make a positive difference in outcome.
  • Ensure safety – Assuming no one requires medical care, analyze your present location and situation. Do you need to move to another location for safety, either from the elements or bad people.
  • Gather Intelligence – Do you know what has happened and what the situation is with other people in your group? Is communication still possible by phone or radio? Do you have communication alternatives like an emergency weather radio or Ham radios?

Determine next steps based upon understanding of your people’s current state and needs for security. It may be that you just roll out the barbecue, fire it up and start cooking those steaks you had that will go bad without power. It could be that you need to evacuate to another city or prepare to defend your home. Any emergency response plan is just a framework for helping you critically analyze, plan for and prevent threats, but it isn’t a solution. Your emergency response plan should enable you to act, but you will be on your own at some point. All the planning in the world can only prepare you. Reality gets a vote and you may find the situation completely different from what you planned for.

The exercise is still valid I think and perhaps this will help those who don’t know where to start prepping with a little direction. There is much to think about but doing so now will help you later if you are forced to live through your own emergency.

To be truly prepared for any type of disaster requires a good bit more effort than simply reading blogs, watching videos and accumulating supplies although I don’t discount at all

 

Introduction to Intelligence

Tornadoes, flooding, and wildfires are just three examples of localized and very personal SHTF events that we’ve seen in the past month, and they illustrate the devastation of an event for which there is immediate early warning. We can be alerted to a tornado warning and seek cover. We can vacate our homes in case of flooding or an approaching wildfire. As we deal in the likelihood of SHTF scenarios, Mother Nature is 100%.

But on a regional or national scale, we’re looking at more unpredictable events for which there is little to no early warning: an electromagnetic pulse, or perhaps a cyber attack on critical infrastructure, or a financial or monetary breakdown that plunges millions into a very real SHTF scenario. The cyber attack on the New York Stock Exchange will have no direct effect on you, but the second- and third-order effects will be felt on every level and generate threats to your community. So what we should be preparing for is not the cyber attack itself, but for the follow-on effects of that cyber attack that will affect your community.

Regardless of the event, we need to be able to collect information to support decision making so we can keep our families safe. Should we bug in or bug out? If bugging out, which route should we take? If bugging in, how can we get early warning of approaching threats?

I’m going to break down a few ways that we can reduce the uncertainty in a SHTF situation. I spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both of those countries were real life or death, 24/7 SHTF situations. As an intelligence analyst, my job was to keep the commander informed on the security situation and threat environment. His responsibility was to make decisions based on the intelligence we provided. If we had no incoming information, then we couldn’t produce intelligence. And this is why information is the basic building block of community security. If we want security in an SHTF scenario, then we need to know more about the threats. What we need is real-time intelligence gathering.

In 2014, a small group of volunteers and I battle tracked the Ferguson riots. The first step of battle tracking began with a process I call Intelligence Preparation of the Community. (You can watch the entire webinar here.) We analyzed the strength, disposition, and capabilities of local security forces. Knowing what equipment they had enabled us to better understand how they would react to unrest. We similarly analyzed the protest groups and identified associated individuals.

What both of these groups had in common is that they were both producing information of intelligence value. Through something as simple as listening to the police scanner, our team was able to plot out the current reported locations of law enforcement and the National Guard. Meanwhile on Twitter, we scanned the accounts of known protestors for real-time information.

In the image below, we took information reported on local emergency frequencies and potted those locations on the map using Google Earth.’Warfighter 33′ was the callsign for the National Guard Tactical Operations Center, which was set up in the Target parking lot. We also pinned several National Guard posts as they reported their locations. It wasn’t rocket science, but it started to help us understand the security situation. This is a very rudimentary form of signals intelligence, or SIGINT.

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Through the night, we continued to use photographs uploaded into social media and news articles in order to identify the photos’ locations. Then we plotted them on a map. Pretty soon, we have a very good idea of which areas were generally safe and which areas had the most activity as the riots progressed and eventually burnt out. Had we lived in Ferguson, we could have used this intelligence to navigate our way to friends and family, or to help friends and family navigate away from the threats. All this information was publicly available, so we call it Open Source Intelligence, or OSINT.

 

So what do I do if there’s a grid-down situation?

That certainly complicates things. Before I answer that question, I want to ask you one: on a scale of 1 to 10, how important is intelligence in a SHTF situation? (I would say 10, but I am admittedly a bit biased.)

First understand that there may still be electricity in a grid-down environment. As long as there are generators, and given that there’s not been an EMP, then someone somewhere will have electricity. My local law enforcement agency claims to have enough fuel for two weeks of backup power were things were to go sideways. That’s good to know, and is the benefit of intelligence collection before an SHTF event, as opposed to a post-SHTF scramble. If they’re powered up and communicating in a SHTF situation, or perhaps some ham radio operators are, then we still need the capabilities to listen in. Otherwise, we’re going to be at a severe disadvantage.

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Evidence gathering equipment used globally by military, law enforcement, governments, and intelligence agencies to interrogate mobile phones, GPS & portable digital devices, providing real-time capture of intelligence and evidence.

If there’s no power, then we’ll have to rely on Human Intelligence, called HUMINT. That means getting out and talking to people. It could mean a reconnaissance patrol. The horse-mounted cavalry were the eyes and ears of the commander before collection technology. Snipers and forward observers sitting in hide sides, whose responsibility it is to observe and report enemy activity, are often excellent intelligence collectors. An observation post equipped with a field phone, sending back intelligence information is another example.

While these are all military examples, there are similar community equivalents. Consider this: technology is a force multiplier. With SIGINT or OSINT, we can be very wide and very deep in our intelligence gathering. That’s a 1:n ratio. We have one collection platform, in this case a radio receiver, and we can scan a very wide band to collect information from anyone who’s transmitting. But when we deal with human intelligence, we’re often on a 1:1 ratio; that is, one collector speaking to one source at any given time. That’s a very slow and difficult way to do business.

So instead of 1:1, I want you to consider the scalability of that ratio. If one person is limited to gathering intelligence information from one person at at time, wouldn’t it makes sense to scale that ratio to 10:10 or 100:100? It absolutely would. Every set of eyes and ears is a sensor, so we as an intelligence element tasked with providing intelligence for community security should absolutely be interested in encouraging community members to passively collect lots of information. All that information is reported back to us, and then we’re engaged in the arduous task of compiling and evaluating that information in order to create intelligence.

Intelligence doesn’t produce itself, so it’s incumbent on us to build that capability. The more accurate information we have, the more wellinformed we can be. Without first being well-informed, making high-risk, time-sensitive decisions just got a whole lot more complicated.

  Introduction to Intelligence Tornadoes, flooding, and wildfires are just three examples of localized and very personal SHTF events that we’ve seen in the past month, and they illustrate the devastation of